New Years Football

Yeah yeah yeah, I’ve been an absent father recently, and I’m sorry. Something called ‘The Holidays’ happened, and I was pleasantly distracted by family, friends, and puppies, so suck on that. But just like that growth on my perineum, I am BACK with a burning vengeance. It’s the end of 2024, so let’s enjoy the last few hours together, as we prepare our bodies for copious amounts of food, alcohol, mystery substances and postseason football. I wouldn’t want to be doing this for anyone else, and I’m thankful for all 4 of my dedicated subscribers <3

We’ve got a good bit to go over, so strap in bitch.

Notre Dame smokes the Cignetti pack as the Irish defend South Bend

ND 27
IU 14

Hand up, I was very wrong in this one. I decided to trust those fraudulent fuckers with everything I’ve got. Head Coach Curt Cignetti had the balls to go on College Gameday and boast about the 2 occasions of him ‘beating’ Top 25 teams, with one being 3 years ago vs Coastal Carolina, instead of mentioning the most recent and only top 25 matchup this year. For those with short memories, it was Ohio State, when they were outclassed and embarrassed. Anyway, this game was more of the same. Notre Dame DOMINATED the line of scrimmage; getting immediate pressure defensively, completely taking the run game away, and blowing their line 3 yards off the ball nearly every snap. RB Jeremiyah Love ran WILD, opening the scoring with a 98 yard TD run where he went untouched. Once the Irish got the lead, they never lost it. The pummeling on the line of scrimmage continued every possession, and Notre Dame continued to suffocate the Hoosiers slowly but surely. Riley Leonard was not asked to do much (230 total yards 2 TDs) and controlled the game like a veteran. Defensively, the Irish looked like the best unit in football. Xavier Watts is a ball hog and tackling machine, and the front 7 was having their way all night.

To say something nice about Indiana – you guys fought til the end, and by that I mean you pulled a ‘Cignetti’. That means you did not play to win, you played to lose closely. If you still aren’t following, ND was up 27-3 and even pulled some defensive starters when all of a sudden Indiana starting airing it out, and scored two garbage time touchdowns in the last minute and a half of play. Congrats, Indiana, on backdooring your way into the closest margin of loss of all teams in the first round. ND moves on and will travel to NOLA to face UGA in the Sugar Bowl on New Years night.

SMU freezes in Happy Valley as the Tittany Lions feast on Mustang

PSU 38
SMU 10

Oh look, another game I was incredibly wrong about. I really thought SMU had a chance to keep this game tight, but I did not foresee QB Kevin Jennings throwing 2 pick sixes in the first 17 minutes of the game. I mean looking at the boxscore, it’s kinda confusing. Penn State QB Drew Allar finished 13/22 for 127 yards and no touchdowns. He had a chill day handing the ball off to his monster RB’s Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton, who combined for 25 carries 160 and 3 TDs. The PSU offense didn’t have to do much here, since the defense put them up two scores pretty much instantly. Once SMU got down, it was over. PSU pinned their ears back and made Kevin Jennings life a living hell for the remaining 43 minutes. This was kinda a stinker the rest of the way so not much else to say here.

Penn State advances to the Fiesta Bowl, where Boise State awaits as double digit underdogs. This will be the solo game tonight on at 7:30pm.

Texas runs wild in a 38-24 rout of Clemson

UT 38
CLEM 24

Cade Klubnik, I apologize, I was not familiar with your game brotha, you balled out. For the rest of Clemson, specifically the defense, pack your things and walk your ass back to Clemson. 305 rushing yards allowed on 7.8 yards per carry, YIKES. It’s hard to win in the playoffs, especially when your defense exhibits the tackling ability of current day Jimmy Carter (R.I.P.). Texas QB Quinn Ewers was not asked to do too much, but when he was called on, he was throwing dots. He connected on a few deep balls, which helped keep the safeties out of the box and helped the run game thrive. I’ve talked about this Texas team being one dimensional at times, and forcing that is your best chance to beat them, but DAMN was the offense clicking on all cylinders. Kudos to Klubnik and true freshman WR TJ Moore for being the only 2 Clemson players really balling out. The two combined for 9 receptions, 118 yards and 1 TD. Klubnik will likely return to Clemson next year, and I really loved what I saw from him in this game. He was making NFL throws all over the place and showed a ton of heart. Unfortunately heart doesn’t win you the game.

Texas advances to face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Day @ 1pm. They open as huge favorites (-13).

Vols ‘takeover’ of The Shoe ends with a pants down ass-kicking

OSU 42
TENN 17

Christ, was I wrong about this one or what? I’ve learned my lesson, Tennessee might be banned for life after that piss poor showing. Josh Heupel was in excellent Bobby Hill form, looking dumbfounded, distressed and disheveled every second of that game. Ryan Day appears to also have learned a valuable lesson – throw the ball to your multiple 1st round WR’s. He flexed all $20 million worth of that roster, almost showing off. The Buckeyes were coming off that embarrassing loss to Michigan, and had a few weeks to stew in it and listen to the haters (me) and doubters (also me) talk down on this team. They came out fast, like prime Lightning McQueen fast, and jumped out to a 21-0 lead with 4 minutes left to play in the 1st quarter. Scoring on all 3 of their first 3 possessions, Ohio State looked like world beaters coming out the gate. Tennessee’s strategy of playing press man coverage on Ohio State’s WRs was…interesting to say the least. I’m not sure what film they decided to watch that brought them to that conclusion but it resulted in QB Will Howard looking like a 1st round draft pick, as he was throwing dimes left and right to Jeremiah Smith (6 rec 103 yards 2 TDs) and Emeka Egbuka (5 rec 88 yards). Despite one interception that was a deflection at the line of scrimmage, Howard was flawless, finishing with a QBR of 98.7. Defensively the Buckeyes had no problem getting home with 3 and 4 defenders, which put Nico Iamarunningback on the move the entire game (he had a whopping 21 carries). DE Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau combined for 3.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss. The story here was horrible game plan from Tennessee, their best offensive threat (RB Dylan Sampson) getting hurt on the second drive, and a complete domination at the line of scrimmage by the Buckeyes. Mix that with OSU’s offense having its way like it was Bill Cosby on a Bachelorette party, and you get the 42-17 splattering that ensued.

Ohio State will face Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and seek revenge for the 1 point loss in Eugene earlier this year. Vegas has the Buckeyes favored by 2.5, so it should be a great one.

Tuesday Night

#3 Boise State vs. #6 Penn State (PSU -11.5 T:53.5) 7:30pm on ESPN

Here we are, in the Quarterfinals. Boise State enjoyed their bye and now take on the Tittany Lions of Pennsylvania State after they spanked SMU in the dead cold of Beaver Stadium. Entering this game, I suppose there are two general schools of thought – 1) Penn State is in the B1G Ten, have shown they have the size and speed to hang with any top tier program in the country, and are ROLLING, surely they will just keep rolling, right? and 2) Penn State and James Franklin tend to struggle in big games, Drew Allar wasn’t tested vs SMU, Boise St. was 2nd in the country in total sacks (wow), Ashton Jeanty is a monster and this team can be frisky (lost to Oregon by just 3). So, which school of thought are you leaning towards? I’ve been pretty dead wrong as of late, assuming the dogs would bark and play some of these heavy favorites close and that just has not been the case. Will Penn State just steamroll a lesser Boise squad? I don’t know if I’m convinced of that. This being a neutral site game gives me some confidence in the Broncos, but let’s put the headset on for a second. You are Penn State, what’s your gameplan? Offensively I’m not changing much from the last 2 outings, pound the rock and lean on those two exceptional backs. If provoked, use Allar’s legs and capitalize on Boise’s’ hyper fixation on the run to hit on some deep balls. PSU’s weakness is a mediocre WR room and their tendency to lean on TE Tyler Warren in any passing situation. Defensively I am LOADING the box with at least 7 defenders, force QB Maddux Madsen to beat you and eliminate Jeanty completely. Get a lead, run the ball, force Boise to be one dimensional. Now, for Boise – to win this game you have to empty the clip. By that I mean be creative and take the risks, call trick plays, disguise coverages, use simulated pressures, etc. You have to throw Penn State off their game early and try to prevent them from running it down your throat. Find creative ways to get Ashton Jeanty the ball in space, whether it’s screens, wildcat, down field passing or even a distraction, you know all eyes are gonna be on 2.

The Pick: I like Boise to cover the +11.5. I think they will be prepared and will make this a rock fight. Their D-line is underrated and I think they can cause some chaos, forcing Allar to be more present in this one than he was vs SMU. If Jeanty can break a few runs I think we could have a fun one. I think Penn State wins the game but I like Boise to fight til the end and keep it within single digits.

Wednesday

#5 Texas vs. #4 Arizona State (TEX -13 T:51.5) 1:00pm on ESPN

How many 100 yard rushers are we gonna have in this game? 2? Maybe 3? Let’s go down the list: Quintrevion Wisner is 1, Jaydon Blue is 2, and maybe Cam Skattebo will do it too? I’m not so convinced. Texas has been arguably the best defense in the country all season, argue with a wall if you disagree. They rank #2 in opponent points per game, yards per game, yards per play and opponent redzone scoring %. Whether you like it or not, they’re nasty. They’ve got NFL talent across the board, including the Jim Thorpe winner (nations best DB) Jahdae Barron. They face a pretty solid offensive unit in the Sun Devils, led by stud RB Cam Skattebo. He has gone on record multiple times and claimed that he is the best RB in the country, which is admirable because you have to be confident, but acting like Ashton Jeanty doesn’t exist is laughable. In his defense, Skattebo has put together quite the season, putting up 1568 yards and 19 TDs on the ground. He has been the engine of this offense all season. He will have a tall task ahead, going up againt the best defense he’s seen all season by a mile. I suspect him to be a bit bottled up at first, but I trust HC Kenny Dillingham to scheme up ways to get the ball in his hands. Freshman QB Sam Leavitt made a rookie mistake earlier this week by claiming he is the better QB in this matchup and that he intends to prove it, so I’m sure that won’t come back to bone him in the ass. He is a wild card, if he uses his legs effectively I think they can move the ball, but we will see if he’s ready for the bright lights or not.

ASU is without their leading WR Jordyn Tyson, who has been out since Week 16 with a shoulder injury. They’ve had a few guys step up in his absence, but I don’t see an advantage on the outside for them against these Texas DBs. To be blunt, I think Texas is too big, too fast, and too pissed off to lose this game. I could be wrong, but I trust Sark to orchestrate another dominate offensive performance running behind the OL and Ewers making throws when needed.

The Pick: It’s a lot of points, 13 to be exact, but I think Texas covers the -13. They control the game.

#8 Ohio State vs. #1 Oregon (OSU -2.5 T:54.5) 5:00 pm on ESPN

Ahhh, the Pièce de résistance. A rematch we deserve, and one that some are claiming to be the ‘real national championship game’. I don’t know about all that, but this should be a hell of a game regardless. As I mentioned earlier in the newsletter, OSU looked like world beaters in their whomping of Tennessee, so it’s hard not to have recency bias when writing up this game. Since both of these squads are elite, let’s go by position group to figure out the advantages.

QB – this one I’m giving to Oregon, and I don’t really think it’s super close. Will Howard has been playing great ball recently (one game) but let’s not forget what Gabriel is capable of. Extending the pocket and throwing darts, running this quick efficient high powered offense and led his boys to an undefeated record. RB – I kinda have to give the edge to Ohio State here, I mean they have two 1st round potential RBs. Oregon RB Jordan James is no slouch though, I think all these cats will be successful NFL backs. WRs – this one might be the toughest one, so I will cheat and say it’s tied. Sure, a lot of you might be yelling, screaming and pissing your pants saying “HOW CAN YOU NOT GIVE IT TO OSU??” and to that I say, suck it. Jeremiah Smith is awesome, no doubt about it, so is Emeka Egbuka, but Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart are equally skilled and capable of making any catch and any play. Let’s just agree both WR rooms are cracked and move on. OL – I would’ve pretty clearly given this to Oregon prior to the OSU Tenn game, because the Ducks unit ranks 14th in the FBS with only 13 sacks given up all year, but now I’m not sure. I think I still lean Oregon here because of the general lack of health to the Buckeyes unit. DL/Front 7 – this goes to the Buckeyes. Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have been game wreckers, and watching the B1G championship game showed the gaps in Oregon’s front unit defensively, as Penn State gashed them all game on the ground. DBs– this one is tough too, Ohio State has some DUDES but they tend to be undisciplined and aggressive, which can be great in certain situations, but not against Oregon. That unit got barbequed last time they met, and I don’t see them hanging with these WRs. Oregon’s unit plays a bit more complimentary football on the back end, but is still vulnerable to big plays if the run game can draw them out of position.

The Pick: I’ve got a two-fer for the people. First, since I LOVE points, I will be having the o54.5. Second, I think it’s the Buckeyes, simple as that. I’m not sipping the Kool-Aid I swear, I am just a man of science and math, and am cursed to know that Ohio State has not lost to a team twice in the same season in over 130 years. Yep, not since 1894. Let that sink in.

#7 Notre Dame vs. #2 Georgia (UGA -1 T:45.5) 8:45pm on ESPN

Our lovely night-cap here, which likely won’t kick off until 9-9:15pm. To be original, I will not do a side by side position comparison, I will simply let the good word flow through me as if I were the great prophet Moses. First order of business: UGA’s backup QB Gunner Stockton. If you are unaware, the young man from Rabun County, Georgia is the proud owner and operator of a 1984 Ford F-150, with 300,000 miles on it, no A/C or power locks/windows. If I were a ND fan I would be a bit worried. When you hear “UGA football player” and “vehicle” in the same sentence, you immediately assume some player was arrested for wreckless driving while drag racing at 2pm on a Tuesday in a leased hellcat. Instead, you get a backup QB driving around in a relic, weathering the hot Georgia summers in a 40 year old A/C-less pickup truck. Idk, if it were me, I’d be a little intimated by that psycho. Anyway, back to the Big Game – Gunner will step in and face another top 5 defense in the Irish. Despite losing the future 1st round CB Benjamin Morris, this Notre Dame defense has been a wall all year. Ranking #3 in PPG allowed, #6 in yards per game and #4 in yards per play, they have as much talent as any team in the country. Safety Xavier Watts is an absolute missile, who goes by the nickname “Ray-J”, because he is not afraid to make a play in the hole, and it definitely shows up on film. He leads the team in interceptions with 6, and is a tackling machine. The next star for the Irish defensively is DE Rylie Mills, who is the team leader in sacks and tackles for loss. He unfortunately suffered a season leg/knee injury in the first round game against Indiana, so they will be without him, which is a huge blow. Offensively, the Irish are led by stud RB Jeremiyah Love and QB Riley Leonard. The two combine to be one of the most prolific and efficient rushing attacks in the country. Leonards legs will be a key for success in this matchup, as his sack avoidance is elusiveness rank Top 5 in the country amongst all players.

For the Dawgs, we aren’t sure what they will look like offensively. Stockton stepped in for Beck in the second half of the SECCG and was able to lead the offense to a better performance. The use of his legs forced the linebackers and DBs to hesitate and respect that aspect of the offense, allowing for the WRs to get separation and find the soft spots in the zone. We didn’t see much development in concepts and schemes, as OC Mike Bobo likely kept the play calling pretty vanilla for Stockton. The Dawgs have had nearly 3 weeks to implement some plays for Gunner and get him and the offense ready. His biggest test will be decision making and timely throws. How many shots is he willing to take? Can he read through the simulated pressures and shell coverages? He really is an unknown, and will need the disappointing WR core of UGA to step up BIG time. Defensively, the Dawgs are kinda night and day. One game you get a candy ass team that can’t tackle, and then another game you get 7 sacks against a Texas OL with 3 1st round lineman. The key for them will be committing to stop the run, and forcing Leonard to beat then throwing. ND ranks #97 in passing yards per game & #72 in yards per pass. If they can limit the run game and put the Irish in long down and distance, it favors the Dawgs.

The Pick: Kirby Smart is 10-2 when having a bye week in order to prepare for an opponent. It’s hard to ignore that, and prior to the Alabama loss earlier this season, Kirby and the Dawgs had won a staggering 21 in a row with more than a week to prepare. Along with that stat, I truly believe in the backup QB bump; the phenomena in CFB where a team rallies behind the backup and elevates their own play around him. I think we get an instant classic, and I’m riding with the Dawgs to cover the 1 and win.

A long one, I know, but the people needed it. Obviously no NFL here because I was rambling on and on, but I’ll be back to my normal routine by weeks end.

Happy New Year to all you filthy deucers out there.

Here’s this weeks featured bowl season meme

Love you guys,

TWD