Getty up! A little different content here since we have a Thursday night CFP game. A longer newsletter will come out tomorrow at some point, recapping Round 2, previewing the Ohio State/Texas game, and a little NFL Wild Card talk as well. For now though, let’s talk ball.
#7 Notre Dame @ #6 Penn State (ND -1.5 T: 44.5) 7:30pm on ESPN
So, I think I’ve come full circle on the Irish. After witnessing Marcus Freeman out-coach Kirby Smart and the discipline that team displayed, I think I’m all in on them. Now, IF they were to beat Penn State, go ahead and hang the banner right away because I don’t think anyone can beat THIS Ohio State team (spoiler for my pick tomorrow). However, THIS current Notre Dame team is operating at their highest capabilities given the circumstances (missing a lot of starters due to injury) and I’m giving that credit to 3 people outside of the HC. That would be offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, defensive coordinator Al Golden and QB Riley Leonard. Kudos to those 3 for coming in with great aggressive gameplans and sticking to it. I imagine they will approach this Penn State matchup very similarly to the UGA game, as they are very similar teams. The depth at the defensive line position has proven to be massive, and if they can continue to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, they can play their game of death by a million cuts. Stud RB Jeremiyah Love is BACK in action after suffering a knee injury vs UGA, but will he be 100%? For Penn State, star Edge Abdul Carter is also rumored to be playing, dealing with a leg injury as well. Those two are arguably the most important players on their respective teams, so the injury status and how healthy they actually are will be something to look out for.
As I mentioned, the Tittany Lions are very similar to the Irish’s last opponent, the Georgia Bulldogs. They are a big, fast, physical team that wants to dominate you up front and lean on their defense for 60 minutes. Despite being defensive minded, they do have one of the best 1-2 punches in CFB in running backs, Nic Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and QB Drew Allar, who isn’t asked to do much, but is very talented. It’ll be interesting to see how they approach this game because so far they have been challenged offensively. Allar is averaging 150 pass yards on 23 attempts per game, so will Notre Dame load the box to stop the run? Maybe try to force Allar to beat them with his arm? Idk, it’s what I would do. I think that philosophy will be used by both defensive coordinators, to eliminate the ground attack and try to put these Qbs in passing situations as often as possible. Notre Dame did a good job down the stretch against UGA mitigating that by running Leonard in spread concepts, giving him a lot of open field to work with. I think Allar is a bit more gifted in the arm talent department when considering him vs. Leonard, but Riley has proven he can be calm and collected down the stretch and lean on his experience as needed. We haven’t seen Drew Allar exhibit that skill yet, so it’ll be interesting to see how he responds if the Irish can shut down Singleton and Allen. The wildcards for me in this are the Penn State pass catchers. All year the WR room has been a weakness hiding behind the strength of the run game, but they may have to step up here against some physical ND defensive backs. Another player to watch is PSU TE Tyler Warren. He’s the Mackey Award winner and deservedly so. At 6’6 260, he’s caught 100 passes for 1150 yards and 9 TDs, while adding another 4 TDs on the ground. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s play design and usage of Warren may be a difference maker in this game.
The Pick: I said it earlier but I’m on the Irish to win and cover. I trust Marcus Freeman and his team to play clean, mistake free football, and force Penn State to be one dimensional. FYI- Notre Dame leads the country in turnover margin, so don’t be surprised if that continues.
See you guys tomorrow
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