Oh how the time flies. Just like that, and we move past ‘Oh Shit October and right into ‘No Way November’, as our fears and dreams are slowly realized. It’s gut check time for a lot of teams in the CFB landscape, as this next month will make or break playoff chances, bowl hopefuls, and those seeking their second win of the season (looking at your FSU). I hope everyone had a spooky Halloween and has an even spookier Halloweekend, but for now, Week 10 bitch.
PSA – It’s recently come to my attention that my friends and family are ‘concerned’ about my ‘well-being’, stemming from my unwavering commitment to you, my Deucers. Apparently I have been an absent parent to my two children (my roommates) and to my idiot friends via me exercising free will and refraining from engaging in their ‘fuckery’. Lucky for you guys, I’m about as malleable as I am handsome, so I’m gonna keep this train rolling. Plus, you can’t get burned out if you don’t light the candle at both ends, right?
Friday Night
San Diego State @ #15 Boise State (BOIS -23.5 T: 56.5) 8pm on FS1
So it seems we’ve reached the first deflated Friday of the season. While that may be the case with no big/fun matchups on the card, allow me to fill your hole(s) with some Ashton Jeanty. As the #1 propagator of the Boise State RB, I will continue to encourage all to tune in and watch this cat tote the rock, because he’s special. Now, does it have anything to do with me possibly holding a 62-1 Ashton Jeanty Heisman winner slip? Absolutely, but I am a man incapable of bias, so you can totally trust me.
Teams have been trying to do anything and everything defensively to stop Jeanty, from stacking the line of scrimmage, to even playing 9 men in the box. I haven’t seen that many men in one box since Instagram model Ayyyejae visited the Phoenix Suns to give them a lesson in ball handling. Anyway, San Diego State is 3rd in the Mountain West @ 3-4 and are likely going to follow suit in attempt to stop Jeanty tonight. If you’re looking for something to watch as you and the fellas go hit the town and look for skimpy dressed women, here ya go.
Saturday Noon
#4 Ohio State @ #3 Penn State (OSU -3 T: 46.5) Enormous Noon Kickoff on FOX
A battle between the two worst big game coaches alive – James Franklin and Ryan Day. Nobody likes to lose big games more than these two gentlemen, but fortunately for them, one of them HAS to win this game. I suppose it will come to which coach makes the most mistakes, and how the the other capitalizes on them.
Penn State has a very stout defense, ranking in the top 10 in points per game, yards per game and yards per play. The offense has been serviceable so far, with QB Drew Allar doing what needs to be done. This team kinda reminds me of a younger Georgia team – leaning on a very good defense and playing a conservative brand of offense, with the QB making a few key plays here and there to get the job done. Now, hold you horses there Nittany Lions, I said kinda reminds me of UGA. Drew Allar has 4 INT’s this year, and has been smart with the ball in dicey moments, but has had the luxury of leaning on the two headed RB monster of Allen and Singleton all year. I don’t think that he will have that same luxury as the Buckeyes defense ranks in the top 5 in yards per carry and yards per game allowed. It’s gonna fall on Allar to make plays with his arm and his legs. Ohio State is a very similar team, as they have a good but not great QB and two great RB’s, but do have the heavy advantage at the WR position. This should be a fun one, and will be huge in deciding potential playoff spots.
Verdict – I don’t feel strongly about the spread or the total to be honest, and I clearly do not trust either of these dumbass coaches. So let’s just toss a blind dart here and take the over. 46.5 feels low so I’m cheering for points.
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse (VT -4 T: 53.5) Noon on The CW
Not a ton to say here but I am acknowledging the Hokies. They’re 5-3 and have won 3 straight after that narrow loss to Miami by virtue of a controversial Hail Mary. The Hokies are on a bit of a roll, and travel to the Carrier Dome (not calling it the other name) to take on a struggling Cuse team that just got their ass kicked by Pitt last week. As much as I am a fan of what the Hokies have been doing, I think Fran Brown and Kyle McCord have been thinking about that 30 point 5 interception loss last Thursday and are determined to make amends. I like the Orange to get a bounce back win here and upset VT. #defendthedome
#19 Ole Miss @ Arkansas (MISS -8 T: 53.5) Noon on ESPN
Hmmmmmmmmmmm the Lane Train is a touchdown favorite going into Fayettevegas? Against Sam ‘The Pittboss’ Pittman? I know what you idiots are thinking, “Yeah but Lane Kiffin doesn’t lose these games, he loses the important ones, ya know, like Kentucky” and right you are. However, this is a big rivalry game, these teams hate each other.
Fun fact – Arkansas is 2-0 in under Sam Pittman in this series in games at Razorback Stadium. The Pittboss loves to beat Lane’s ass at home, period. Now, the teams look a little different than in years past, but I love the Hogs, always have. In the wise words of Kevin Cronin (REO Speedwagon) “I can’t fight this feeling any longer” so give me the Hogs to cover the +8 and I shall sprinkle on them to win outright because I’m a #gremlin.
Saturday Afternoon
Kinda weird afternoon slate here so let’s just do some quick hitters for the culture
#1 Oregon @ Michigan (DUCKS -13.5 T: 44.5) 3:30pm on CBS
North Carolina @ FLLLLLLLorida State (UNC -2.5 T: 49.5) 3:30pm on ACC Network
#13 Indiana @ Michigan State (IU -8 T: 52.5) 3:30pm on PeaCOCK
#2 Georgia vs. Florida (UGA -14.5 T: 51.5) 3:30pm on ESPN
A real dealer’s choice here with the 3:30 slate. These are the four spots/games I like and will be watching, so let’s go through them real quick.
– Oregon at Michigan is interesting. I believe in Michigans ability to create a hostile atmosphere for visiting teams, but also think they are mega ass, so what now? That defense is legit, no doubt about that, but I don’t think they can score 10 points, and that’s being optimistic. Give me the Ducks to waddle out of Ann Arbor with a win and a cover of this two touchdown spread. I think they win by 17+
– I really chose this game so I can continuously make fun of the Seminoles, so FSU fans look away. It’s now getting to the point where it is becoming increasingly more difficult to count how many L’s I need to add to their name each week. Unfortunately for them, I don’t see the bleeding stopping here. UNC is finding a groove, and you guys STINK so I’m on the Tarheels to cover.
– Curt Cignetti. Nuff said. The Hoosiers are on a mission and I’m sipping the Kool Aid big time. Give me all the points, I don’t care, they cover.
– Dawgs are coming off a bye week after the huge win at Texas. They have been pretty atrocious at covering spreads this year, and I think Vegas is finally starting to adjust to it. Florida has freshman QB DJ Lagway starting in this one, and while he has a ton of talent, he might shit his pants after watching tape of the UGA defense dismantle Texas and sack Ewers 7 times. I think the Dawgs win here, but I really don’t know which way to go here with the spread, and my gut usually just says “take the over then stupid, points are fun”. Maybe it’s a gut check day for me… not sure but I’m gonna disregard that and trust the Dawgs to care of business and cover in the World Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Saturday Night
#10 Texas A&M @ South Carolina (TAMU -3 T: 43.5) 7:30pm on ABS
Trap game? Sure looks like it. Vegas seems to agree, as the line is only showing a FG advantage for the Aggies. Williams-Bryce is an underrated place to play, as are most SEC stadiums during night games, but Texas is the ONLY undefeated SEC team in conference play right now.
If you’re sitting there scratching your head wondering “Well why the hell are they only a 3 point favorite then?”, you are not alone brother (or sister, sup by the way shawty?). Let me break it down for you – strength vs strength. Texas A&M ranks 9th in the country with 221 rushing YPG while the Gamecocks rank 3rd in the SEC, only allowing 101 rush YPG. The USC front of Kyle Kennard, Dylan Stewart & Tonka Hemingway (unreal name) has been an absolute force so far this year. If they can stifle this Aggie rush attack, it’ll force them to air it out, a weakness of the Aggies thus far. They have been running a semi-effective 2 man (pause) QB strategy so far, with Conner Weigman & Marcel Reed. It’ll be interesting to see who starts, who plays more, and which can step up in the pass game if needed. The Cocks are not to be taken lightly, as they are hungry for their first home win of the season, after a few big road upsets. If they can protect the ball and control some clock on offense, while letting that defensive front do its thing, this can be really tight.
Verdict – another game where I have no idea. Which A&M QB will we see more of? That will be a HUGE factor. My heart say Beamer ball at home gets the job done, so I’m gonna listen to it. Give me the Cocks to upset the Aggies and win, throwing a huge wrench into an already wide open SEC.
Louisville @ #10 Clemson (CLEM -10 T: 62.5) 7:30pm on ESPN
Short and sweet – Clemson has smoked just about everyone since that opening loss to Georgia. Nobody is talking about them, and they are kinda dangerous. Louisville can score with the best of them (in the ACC) but I don’t care. Clemson has been sodomizing teams left and right and you’re only making them a 10 point favorite? Yeah, okay. Gimme the Tigers to cover and continue rolling.
#18 Pittsburgh @ #20 SMU (SMU -7.5 T: 57.5) 8pm on ACC Network
Pitt is one of our last remaining undefeated teams, and Vegas has them entering Southern Methodist territory as a dog… interesting. You guys know I love the ole ball coach at Pitt, No Nonsense Narduzzi, and I guarantee he’s been spewing some Kirby Smart level manipulation to the team all week about them being dogs. SMU comes into this game with just 1 loss to BYJew, in a heartbreaker early in the season. The Stangs are rolling and undefeated in ACC play (yes, they are in the ACC now), so this matchup has some pretty heavy ACC contender implications.
Facts – SMU is averaging 50.2 PPG over the last 12 games, with the outlier being the loss @ BYU where they were held to 12. Pitt QB Eli Holstein has been on fire this year but enters this game a little banged up after suffering a shoulder injury in the Syracuse game last weekend. He’s been cleared and will start, but be mindful of that. I think SMU matches up pretty well against the Panthers, but I don’t bet against Italians, ever. Give eme Pitt to cover the7.5, I think it’s a close one that comes down to the wire. I’m also gonna have the over, because I LOVE points.
Bijan Robinson – our dread headed friend fell short last weekend but he plays the Cowboys. He may score 3 times. Little extra juice for you guys, take him for o100 rushing yards.
Ja’marr Chase – this cat has scored 7 times already this season. Facing a poor pass defense I like this Bengal Tiger to find the endzone again.
Nicholas Jamaal Chubb – the silent assassin has returned. Cleveland’s Batman is somewhat back to his former self, and with Jameis under center teams must respect the pass, which opens the run. He’s gonna score and hit his over (50.5)
Kyren Williams – the man has 10 touchdowns. He’s a magnet for the endzone.
David Montgomery – if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Scored in every game but 1 this season and it’s a divisional game. Best team in the NFC btw.
Josh Downs – a fun one here in primetime. Joe Flacco playing maybe his last primetime game ever? He lovessss Joshua. I’d take his receptions up to 6 or even 7.
NFL Quick Picks
- Titans v. Patriots o37.5: absolutely gross pick here, I know. Mason Rudolph vs a very concussed Drake Maye, nobody should score, right? Wrong. Too low and in the early slate, going with my gut here.
- Browns ML: I love Harbaugh but I love Jameis Winston and Nick Chubb more. They have new life with Jimbo at QB and you’re gonna make them home dogs? Yeah okay.
- Rams v. Seahawks o48.5: full transparency here this is another ‘gut pick’. NFC West games on in the afternoon slate are 6-1 hitting the over (not a real stat) so I’m riding with it. Good ole fashioned old man football, Stafford vs Geno = shootout.
- Lions v. Packers o48.5: speaking of NFC divisional shootouts, welcome to the battle of the North. Jordan Love is questionable so monitor that, but then again the Lions can cover this on their own. Let’s cheer for points together.
- Falcons -2.5: you’re gonna give me the dirty birds by less than a FG? Against Dakota Prescott and his 60 year old running backs? Yeahhhhhhh papa is gon have that! Is it a trap? Yeah probably. The Falcons have blown a few late leads and Dak lovessss back door covering but it’s less than a FG so I don’t care.
- I don’t see another spread or total I like, and to be honest I kinda hate all of my picks, so let’s pivot & throw a prop at you here. Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception (+105). He leads the league with 9 & has thrown at least one in every game. I foresee a MNF game scenario where Antione Winfield Jr. has a pick 6.
Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers, I guess. Turns out buying the best baseball player to exist and building the best team in baseball WILL win you a World Series. Personally, my team would never sell out like that. I like to think my MLB team watches Moneyball once a week and chooses to worship that film as an idolatrous piece of literature. Anyway, Freddie Freeman wins World Series MVP, posting some great numbers – .300 BA, 4 HRs, 12 RBIs, 1 walk off grand slam. Fred hit a HR in 6 straight World Series games (dating back to the 2021 WS w/ Atlanta) which is a new record. After having a tumultuous season, full of all kinds of ups and downs, it’s great to see Freddie play his best when it mattered most.
Jankees, ya sure showed some life in Game 5 didn’t ya? Volpe and Mike Stanton remain the only consistent Zebras out there, and Aaron Judge finally decided to show up to the party. Sure, he may have showed up as the champagne and hats were already being passed around the Dodgers locker room, but The Captain saved face. Not really, he sucked balls all postseason. The nightmarish 5th inning saw him drop a routine pop fly (see below) which in turn gave the Dodgers life to rally back from down 5. Lucky for A A-Ron, the people of New York are both forgiving & mild tempered so I’m sure they won’t hold this against him the rest of their pizza filled lives. This series kinda blew, aside from Freddie being awesome. Till next year, Baseball.
Nothing crazy here folks. Just a little meme for ya.
Love you guys,
TWD
