Week 11 Preview

So, pretty busy week, eh? Not sure about you guys, but my heads been spinning ALL month (yeah it’s only been 8 days, kiss my ass). I’ve been saying it for months though, and have been in multiple arguments with both people I respect and even those that I resent, but the outcome I predicted has officially come to fruition – famous singer and songwriter Shawn Mendes has come out as gay (not that there is anything wrong with that, my neighbors cat is gay). I know, quite a shock to everyone, and it was considered a “piping hot take to have” according to the Shawn Mendes Fan Club twitter, but it NEEDED to be said. Wow, that took a lot of confidence to say in writing, I’m proud of myself. I hope this completely correct and real prediction doesn’t divide you guys, I would never want to do that. Anyway, FOOTBALL.

Damnit. I picked a bad night to be super athletic (I played 2 hours of pickup hoops, no big deal). Apparently this game was awesome, and checking the box score and gamelog, I can officially confirm it must’ve kicked ass. Hand up, I did catch the tail end of it and watch the last two drives, so that counts kinda. This was a battle between two of the top 4 QBs in the league, and recently these guys have been playing like the Top 2. Lamar ‘LaMVP’ Jackson was near perfect, throwing for 291 yards & 4 TDs and adding another 40 on the ground. Joe Burrthrow brought his A game as well, tossing from 430 & 4 scores of his own. Per the box score – it came down to the ravens scoring on 4 straight possessions after falling to an early 14-0 deficit. King Henry was actually held to under 70 yards, but he did score though. NFL HISTORY: Jamarr Chase is the ONLY player to ever record 250 yards receiving & 2 TDs in multiple games, he also is now the record holder for most yards (457) in one season vs the same opponent. NUTS. Lamar moves to 10-1 (YIKES) all time against the division rival Cincinnati Bengals.

No need to tease you guys with any Friday night games, let’s get straight to the goods

Saturday Noon

#5 Miami @ Georgia Tech (UM -11.5 T: 63.5) Noon on ESPN

Here we have the complimentary chips and salsa appetizer that precedes the main course. Much like chips & salsa, this game may not look like much at first, but before you know it you’ll have gone through 3 baskets before even realizing it, and have to scramble to remember your entree. What I’m trying to say is this matchup doesn’t look great, the #5 team in the country playing a 5-4 team? Why would that be a good game? Isn’t the spread 2 scores, why the hell would I get caught up watching this? Well, allow me to spell it out for you, jackass.

Here’s the skinny – Miami is undefeated, the #1 offense in the country (per TWD statistics), and has one of the Heisman frontrunners at quarterback (Cam Ward). While the offense has been moving with the fluidity and destructive prowess of a Hurricane, the defense has been more akin to a shallow puddle, as many have demonstrated an ease walking all over it. The defense, specifically the secondary, is ranked 98th in coverage grade this season.

For the Jackets, their chances of keeping this competitive are hinging on the health of QB Haynes King. At this very moment, King is ‘Day-to-Day’, which is Coach speech for ‘He’s no longer injured, but he is still hurt and wants to play’. If he gets the green light, I like to think the Jackets can keep this within the spread and maybe give the ‘Canes a scare. Ideally Haynes is healthy and this is a fun shootout, but most signs are pointing to The U rolling here so I’ll just side with the public.

Saturday Afternoon

#5 Georgia @ #16 Ole Miss (UGA -2.5 T: 54.5) 3:30pm on ABC

Game of the day? Maybe, we do have the Bama LSU game a little later on, but this one should be pretty good too. UGA is currently a FG favorite as the Dawgs travel to Oxford to play one of the best offenses in the country in Ole Miss (2nd in PPG & YPG). QB Jaxson (yes, he ACTUALLY spells it with an X) Dart has been playing his best football recently, averaging 355 pass yards and 3 TDs a game. On the other side, is QB Carson Beck, who has been playing himself out of the 1st, 2nd and maybe even 3rd round of the NFL draft. The poor bastard is losing more and more confidence as we move week to week. Just like Austin Powers, he’s lost his mojo, and has gone to extreme lengths trying to get it back – like putting enough eye black on to be confused with Kirk Lazarus.

Now, let’s check in with my numbers guy (me, but with glasses on) as he walks us through this matchup with some important numbers. TWO – Ole Miss’ high powered offense is the second in total yards, and 4th in scoring efficiency this season. If UGA wants to curb that, they will have to look to the LSU and Kentucky film, where they nearly set school records for sacking Dart. If you can get home to the QB, the offense stalls out. The Dawgs sacked Texas QBs 8 total times, and they will need to lean on that pass rush to have any hope. SEVEN – the number of games Georgia has scored 30+ points. Kinda shocking when you look at Carson Becks numbers, but the offense is averaging 300 pass yards a game and 33 PPG. The Dawgs have been resilient this year finding a way to win when Carson struggles, leaning on the defense and the run game to get the job done. NINETY TWO – Ole Miss currently ranks 92nd in passing yards allowed a game, giving up 324 per game to SEC opponents. This game will be a battle at the line of scrimmage, same as any SEC game, but the turning point will be Carson Becks ability (or inability) to exploit that shitty secondary. For the Rebels, they need to run the ball. They’ve struggled doing that against real teams, but Lane Kiffin knows this is an elimination game for his team, so I expect him to throw the kitchen sink at this Dawgs defense.

Verdict – this game goes as Carson goes, if he can play like he did all of last year, or find some % of that, I think the Dawgs roll. Gonna trust Kirby and lay the points with UGA.

1. Michigan @ #8 Indiana (IU -14 T: 49.5) 3:30pm on CBS
2.#17 Iowa State @ Kansas (ISU -3 T: 49.5) 3:30pm on FS1
3. #23 Clemson @ Virginia Tech (CLEM -6.5 T: 52.5) 3:30pm on ESPN
4. #20 Colorado @ Texas Tech (BUFFs -3.5 T: 62.5) 4pm on FOX
5. South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (SC -3.5 T: 45.5) 4:15pm on SEC Network

1.If I told you in August that Michigan was traveling to Indiana and the spread was 14 points, you would probably say something along the lines of “Huh, well I guess that makes sense, Michigan lost a lot of talent from that National Championship team, so I guess them being favored by only 2 touchdowns makes sense.” Then I would go along and say something like “Nice try, pal, but it’s actually Indiana that’s favored by 14, not Michigan”, and your head would explode from disbelief. Well, here we are in November of 2024, and Indiana is not only favored by 14 against the reigning national champs, but 9-0 and on their way to a B1G Ten championship game appearance and maybe even a playoff birth. I’ve been on the Hoosier train so long they’ve allowed me to move up to the front cab and even christened me as an honorary conductor. It must have something to do with my incessant propagating of WIndiana. In that vain, I am going to ride with my Hoosiers to stay on the tracks and cover the 14 points and probably beat Michigan by 20+. #C1GsInside

2. The Iowa State Cyclones are fresh off their first loss of the season, after suffering a late upset at Texas Tech last weekend. That loss hurt, putting a damper on their playoff aspirations, but they have an opportunity here to right the ship by beating up on a downtrodden 2-6 Kansas team. If you’re like me (a ball knower), you’re probably pretty disappointed with this years Kansas team. I thought QB Jalen Daniels (the other one) and RB Devin Neal were poised to carry the Jays to a 9-10 win season, but alas nobody’s predictions are perfect, not even mine. While having a 2-6 record usually indicates a team being asscheeks, I’m not certain this team is. They have had some really close losses (K State by 2, WVY by 4, Illinois by 6, UNLV by 3) and I think if they put together a complete game, they can hang with the best of the BIG 12. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening this weekend, as ISU is likely pissed off and hungry to get back on track. Give me the Cyclones to win and cover.

3. Clemson v. Virginia Tech – the battle of the disappointments. Clemson we know about, after getting sodomized by UGA in the opener, they were rolling and looking like a real force in the ACC, then Louisville came to town and gave Dabo a proper spanking. For the Hokies, they’re 5-4, with two heartbreaking losses in a months time. First it was the controversial Hail Mary against Miami, then an overtime heartbreaker against Kyle McCord and Cuse last weekend. I think they are better than the record indicates, and makes me sad that they’re only 5-4. They have an opportunity this weekend to remind people that Kyron Drones is one of the best QBs in the ACC and that Lane Stadium is a hostile environment. Not sure which version of these teams we’ll see, but it should be a fun one, so I’m cheering for points here and taking the over.

4. A pretty huge game in the BIG 12 here, as Deion and company travel to Lubbock as a field goal favorite. Hand up time, if you told me in August that Colorado would be 6-2 and ranked in the first CFP rankings, I would’ve asked how much Deion is paying the committee, but here we are. Credit to where credit is due, he and his staff have done a pretty impressive job cleaning up the defense, going from the 130th ranked defense last year to around 50th currently. I know that doesn’t seem great, but the offense was never a problem, so any improvement gives them a chance to stay in these conference games late and walk away with a win. The Red Raiders are riding high right now, after that emotional upset win at home vs Iowa State, can they do it again as home dawgs? I don’t believe so, my data and model (aka vibes) say Shedeur will throw for 350 and a few TDs against the BIG 12’s worst pass defense, and Travis Hunter will make some incredibly crazy athletic play that will be on ESPN’s social media pages for the following 72 hours. Shootout in Lubbock, I like the over.

5. USC v. Vandy in any other year would be a game that you flip to on accident during the day, maybe watch one or two possessions, then at the first site of Flo pushing her insurance bundling agenda flip it away to another game, never revisiting it again. Not this year. Kinda sucks it’s on at the same time as a bunch of great games, but if you’re a sicko like me and love a good quad box, this should command a spot. We kinda already know the story of both of these teams, so I’m not gonna beat a dead horse. Both are frisky, but the Cocks are hardening more and more each week, and I don’t see the ‘Dores being able to handle Beamer Ball(s) or his gameCock(s). USC moneyline.

Saturday Night

#11 Alabama @ #15 LSU (BAMA -3 T: 58.5) 7:30pm on ABC

Ya gotta love this game, it’s always a banger. This year we get Milroe vs. Nussmeier in what the experts are calling a “elimination game”, due to the consequences of losing this game. Both are 6-2, LSU is 3-1 in SEC play while Bama is 3-2. I’ll go ahead and agree with the ‘experts’ scorching hot take here and say yeah, the loser of this game is likely eliminated from the Playoffs. Diving into this game a bit, I see some similarities between these two teams. For one, both Head Coaches gradually turn into Twizzlers as the game goes on, becoming beet red and wound up as tight as one.

Alabama – since the first half of the Georgia win, the Tide have looked like a shell of themselves. They’ve lost two games, one to Vandy at home and one on the road in Knoxville. QB Jalen Milroe must’ve used all his magic in the Georgia game, because he hasn’t sniffed a stat line even close to his 1st half performance in that game. He’s thrown more interceptions than TDs since then, and the offense is averaging on 23 PPG. Defensively they aren’t cohesive at all, when the D-Line is cooking, the secondary is lost in the sauce, and vice versa. Now, for Brian “R Kelly” Kelly and his Tigers, they have been on more of a consistent roll recently. They dropped the season opener to USC, and since then have been in dogfights just about every week, but have found ways to win them, until Texas A&M. They traveled to Aggieland & fell victim to the 12th man. They’ve now had 2 weeks to think about it and prep for hosting the Tide, so we’ll see what they’ve got. QB Garrett Nussmeier remains one of my favorites in all of CFB, so I am excited to see him light this weak Bama defense up all night. Sticking with that excitement, I will let it blindly guide me to picking the Tigers to upset Bama and defend Death Valley to keep their playoff hopes alive.

PrizePicks TD Scorers of the week are brought to you by Dude Wipes.

If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about getting in the trenches & getting their butts in the (end) zone, it’s Dude Wipes.

Tayson Hill – interim Head Coach bump here and divisional game. This guy loves scoring on the Falcons

Najee Harris – “Najee?? But the Commanders just traded for Marshon Lattimore!!” Don’t care, his bigass is finding the endzone.

Tyrone Tracy – he’s playing the Panthers, nuff said. Take him for a TD and the over on his rushing yards.

Deebo Samuel – CMC is back (maybe) but I don’t care. Aiyuk’s knee exploded and Deebo will continue to step up.

Saquon Barkley – a week removed from the craziest hurdle ever, and he gets to play the Cowboys?? Yeah he’s scoring.

Drake Maye – could sprinkle on him to score, but I’m more focused on his rushing yards. o28.5, LOVE IT

David Montgomery – he is our Wagon. 8 TDs this season. Feed me

NFL Quick Picks

• Lions -3.5 @ Texans: This line will probably move more as we approach Sunday Night but I love Detroit. Jared Goff has been playing like an MVP candidate and has weapons everywhere. The Texans are pretty banged up, and CJ Stroud seems to be in a sophomore slump, as he hasn’t looked like himself all year.
• Eagles -6.5 @ Cowboys: Not overthinking this, since losing to the Falcons, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are 5-1 with Hurts and Saquon looking like one of the best backfield duos in the NFC. The Cowboys drowning in Jerry Jones’ piss, and Dak Prescott is hurt. I don’t foresee a Cooper Rush legacy game here so give me the Birds to roll.
• Bucs @ 49ers o50: Pretty simple here, the Bucs defense ranks 30th and 31st in yards and points allowed this season. CMC might be back, Deebo is healthy, Kittle is healthy, that’s enough for me. You can also always count on Baker to sling it around despite having no WRs.
• Vikings -4 @ Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a left shoulder injury, believed to have suffered due to the repetitive need to “Put his hair up to feel pretty”. That means the former Pats QB Macaroni Jones is IN, give me Samuel L. Jackson Darnold and the Vikings to give them the business.
• Rams -1 vs. Dolphins: Matty Stafford has been slinging it the last few weeks, yes he is still throwing interceptions, but slinging it nonetheless. Tua ‘Twitter Fingers’ Tagovailoa is back in the lineup for the 3rd straight week, and scrambling around as if he didn’t pull a page out of Cinderella’s book and turn into a pumpkin just a few short months ago. I like McVay to win the battle of “young hip cool” coaches, and move to .500 for the first time this season.

Winner: You, me, your parents, neighbors and dogs everywhere. In case some of you aren’t aware, there was recently a Presidential election. We as a country, can FINALLY exhale, sit back and enjoy our lives again. You may be asking ‘why?’, and it’s quite simple, NO MORE POLITICAL ADS OR COMMERCIALS. Not to mention those fun texts messages from randoms trying to sway your vote with ‘Cold Hard Facts’. Thank GOD that shit is behind us, and we can happily return to our regularly scheduled program of insurance carriers, phone carriers, sporting brands, Papa John’s and random small community college commercials. I can’t wait to peacefully go on my phone as soon as the game goes to commercial, instead of going on my phone instantly but having to hear some voice over man tell me Trump hates sex changes for inmates and Kamala LOVES it. We can finally return to normal, so enjoy it (peacefully going on your phone during commercial breaks).

Loser: You, me, your parents, neighbors and dogs everywhere. If you’ve been following College Football this season, you may know who Ben the dog is – he’s Kirk Herbstreits 10 year old golden retriever who travels everywhere with him. Well, Thursday morning Ben sadly passed. He has been battling leukemia and lymphoma since March, and the cancer spread throughout his organs. Ben was beloved by all and known for his smiling face and love for interrupting nationally syndicated broadcasts. If you’re unfamiliar with Ben, I highly suggest giving him a goog and hearing Kirk talk about his best friend. I know this is more despondent than my typical ramblings, but I too miss my pup. This is a great reminder that despite life’s hardships, challenges and tribulations, God gifted us dogs. They exist only to love us, as the most selfless animals on Earth, so hug your furry ones and let them know they’re loved.

That’s all I’ve got ladies and gents. Let’s have a great weekend.

Love you guys,

TWD