Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you all had your fill of turkey, napping, and uncomfortably contentious conversations with distant family members and significant others. I just told my Grandma that I had to take a break from our riveting conversation about my love life (or lack there of) to go finish the ‘Novel’ that I’m writing. Some lesser writers would take time off around the Holidays, but not me (I’m the best), but this will be pretty bare boned, just FYI. Figured I’ll (quickly) run through the schedule for you guys and give you a quick pick if I feel so inclined. With that being said, let’s check it out.
We’ve got NFL and CFB to watch today, hell yea.
Raiders @ Chiefs (KC -12.5 T: 42.5) 3pm on Amazon Prime
Not the best game, but it’s still NFL football. Gardner Minshew broke his collarbone, so he’s toast. That leaves the Raiders with a classic Sophie’s Choice type of decision – Aidan O’Connell with a partial broken thumb, or Desmond Ritter with a fully broken ego? They opted for O’Connell, but I don’t think it matters. I think the Chiefs roll here but I just want to see a healthy dose of Brock Bowers. Let’s throw him the ball at least 15 times please. I’m not picking a side in this possible snoozer.
Oregon State @ #11 Boise State (BOIS -19 T: 56.5) Noon on FOX
First game of the day belongs to #11 ranked and #4 seeded Boise State. The Broncos are in a prime spot to hold onto to that 4 spot and get a 1st round bye. Before they do though, they have to go through the 5-6 Beavers. To be blunt, Oregon St. is bad. Ranking 100th in opp PPG (31.5) 107th in opp rush YPG (187.8) and 115th in opp yard per rush (5.7), this is a matchup NIGTHMARE for them. They are facing the soon to be Heisman winner, BSU RB Ashton Jeanty, who is having an unbelievable year (see below for a crazy stat). If Boise can get through this game, they will have a rematch with UNLV in the Mountain West Conf. Championship. No pick here, but if you’re a prop guy, I’d take Jeanty for 250 yards and 3 TDs, trust me.
Oklahoma State @ #25 Colorado (COLO -16 T: 65.5) Noon on ABC
Another little noon game, shouldn’t be anything crazy. ‘Rado is looking for a bounce back win after Kansas kicked their ass last weekend and shattered any post season chance they had. This is Sheduer and Travis’ last home and regular season game, so I expect a healthy Thanksgiving force feeding to #12. Travis has vocalized many many many times that HE is the Heisman favorite, even disparaging what my guy Jeanty at Boise State has been doing. That doesn’t sit quite right with me, just respect that he has helped revive the RB position and is putting up video game numbers every week. Either way, Travis is a generational talent himself, so tune in to watch that if you feel so inclined. No pick here.
Mississippi State @ #14 Ole Miss (MISS -26 T: 61.5) 3:30pm on ABC
Egg bowl!!! A Thanksgiving weekend tradition like no other, watching these two teams face off after disappointing seasons. You could argue Ole Miss didn’t have all that of a disappointing season, but I’d disagree. The UGA win was cool, sure, but then you lose to Florida and you go from playoff hopeful to PopTart Bowl hopeful. I think Lane and his train will blow the doors off this stinky State team, but I don’t really like the spread OR the total, sooooo let’s ask the room. Great Aunt Peggy just made a brilliant point, 6 of the last 7 matchups between these teams has been decided by10 points or less, so let’s ride with the Dogs here to cover the large +26 and keep a rival game kinda close. P.S. – If this is wrong let’s all send hate mail to GrAunty Peggy.
Georgia Tech @ #7 Georgia (UGA -20.5 T: 53.5) 7:30pm on ABC
Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. The K-man has not lost to the Jackets since his first year as HC at UGA back in 2016. He’s won 6 straight, and is consistent in stressing the importance of this game, and that you can typically throw out the record books. On the opposite side is big man Brent Key, who is seemingly over-excited to be coaching in his 3rd GT v UGA game. The former Georgia Tech lineman has spared no words since becoming Head Coach, stating “We have an opponent in this state, that we will work 365 days a year to defeat. We will work 365 days a year to dominate.” Pretty intense stuff there Brent but I guess I respect the singularly focused mindset. I love the hate that brews between these two teams, and credit to Key as he and the Jackets have covered the spread against UGA both years so far. Does he have enough juice to cover again, and maybe even clip the Dawgs? Nahhhhh I don’t see it. They have QB struggles, operating a 2 man system with Haynes King running and true frosh Aaron Philo throwing (and sometimes running). If the Dawgs can be focused and play even 3 quarters of on-brand football, I think this could be a splattering. The game IS in Athens, at night, and I can see the Dawgs kicking their little brother right in the nuts, but -20.5 is a big number, especially for a rivalry game. UGA sucks ass at covering large spreads, especially this year, so I’m gonna go against my better judgement and take the Jackets to keep this one with 3 scores and cover.
#8 Tennessee @ Vandy (TENN -11 T: 48.5) Noon on ABC
Sure would be a shame if Tennessee, a team that is essentially locked in to make the playoffs, slips up against the in-state rival who has feasted in this spot all season…. give me the double digit home dogs to bark loud and cover.
#15 South Carolina @ #12 Clemson (CLEM -2.5 T: 49.5) Noon on ESPN
Ohhhhhh babyyyyy what a game this is turning out to be. Another in-state hate matchup has two playoff hopefuls right on the outside looking in. If Clemson can win, they will need a little more help/chaos ahead of them to get in, but they heavily increase their chances with a win. For the Cocks, they are probably the hottest team in the country. They have been on a tear, and if they can manage to take down Dabo’s Tigers, they will have give the committee an impossible decision to make, as 2 of the 3 teams they lost to are sitting directly in front of them at #13 & #14. I think the dream season ends, and I like Clemson to take care of business at home and cover.
Michigan @ #2 Ohio State (OSU -20.5 T: 42.5) Enormous NOON Kickoff on FOX
This game will probably be an asskicking, watch if you’re into that kinda thing I suppose.
#5 Notre Dame @ USC (ND -7.5 T: 51.5) 3:30pm on CBS
Notre Dame, I have been disrespecting you pretty consistently since the loss to Northern Illinois. I’m not gonna stop until you beat someone good, but I do think you cover here at the Coliseum.
#6 Miami @ Syracuse (MIA -11.5 T: 67.5) 3:30pm on ESPN
Guess who’s taking another home dog? You guessed it, me. I have little no faith in Miami, especially their defense. The total is nearly 70 points, and I agree with Vegas that this should be a shootout. I think 1st year HC Fran Brown knows his squad can pull this off, and he and I both foresee a Kyle McCord legacy game. Gimme ‘Cuse to cover the +11.5 here and maybe even give Miami a second loss.
Auburn @ #13 Alabama (BAMA -11.5 T: 51.5) 3:30pm on ABC
Who doesn’t love a good ole Iron Bowl? If this game were in Jordan-Hare, I would pick Auburn with no hesitation, but Bama has been a different animal at home this year. The Tide know what’s at stake here in a must win, and even though I think they are deader than the Queen of England, the Committee disagrees and is showing Bama bias (shocker). No pick here, but it should be a fun game (hopefully).
Arkansas @ #23 Missouri (MIZZ -3.5 T: 53.5) 3:30pm on SEC Network
Arkansas, if you’re reading this, please listen to me. BEAT MISSOURI PLEASE. I’m tired of seeing them in the top 25, so this is absolutely a personal pick. Razorbacks go across enemy lines and win the Battle Line Rivalry. If you haven’t had the pleasure of watching Arkansas football this year, just prepare your asshole. It will be clenched all game as the Hogs are electric but also sloppy, so anything could happen.
#16 Arizona State @ Arizona (ASU -8.5 T: 53.5) 3:30pm on FOX
With a win here at Arizona, the Sun Devils of Arizona State will lock in their trip to the Big 12 Championship game. They could face Colorado, BYU or even Iowa State, it’s gonna come down to these games Saturday. Since I don’t really have a pick in this game, I’ll use this time to quickly go over those hypotheticals: ASU – win and in. Iowa State – win of Kansas St. and they’re in. Colorado – win over OK St. & 2 losses from either ASU, Iowa St. or BYU. BYU – win over Houston & loss from one of ASU or Iowa State. This is gonna be fun to watch it all shake out, but either way, I only see the winner of the Big 12 CG getting into the playoffs.
#3 Texas @ #20 Texas A&M (TEX -5.5 T: 48.5) 7:30pm on ABC
My spider sense is tingling Mary Jane. This is the PERFECT spot for TAMU, but is it TOO perfect?? Coming off an emotional and rather embarrassing 4 overtime loss to Auburn, the Aggies are desperate to get back on track. A night game at home in College Station against a pretty unproven but highly ranked team that you happen to despise is a good incentive to lock the fuck in. If I’m Texas A&M, I’m watching the UGA Texas game film on repeat, and telling my edge rushers to pin their ears back and get after Ewers. Texas has been pretty quiet since that close call at Vandy a month ago, and they have to know if they lose this game… they are getting a first class ticket to the TaxSlayer bowl. I think it comes down to coaching and QB play (duh) and I lean Texas in both of those categories. A&M Freshman QB Marcel Reed has been a pleasant surprise this year, single handedly winning the Aggies games down the stretch, but Ewers has the experience. I also trust Sark to do everything in his power to scheme up a great game, as he has probably watched the Auburn film multiple times. I know it’s in College Station, but I think Texas goes in there and beats up on the little brother. Texas covers the -5.5
Keeping it simple. A few picks for you guys and that’s it.
NFL Quick Picks – YTD 35-32
Texans -4 @ Jags: Rumors on the street are saying Trevor Lawrence is back this weekend, so I’m assuming that’s why the spread is so low. I don’t really care, the Texans have been playing poorly and this is a great get right spot.
Cardinals @ Vikings o44.5: points, nuff said. Kyler vs Sam Darnold – NEED IT.
Rams @ Saints u49.5: this under is a test. I hypothesize the 4pm slate produces nothing but stinkers so I will take what I call a ‘blind under’ which means I’m not watching it so why not take the under.
Bucs -5 @ Panthers: I love betting on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are arguably one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now! (they’re 1-4 in their last 5) but don’t overthink it, they are playing the Panthers.
Ravens -3 vs. Eagles: Lamar Jackson does not lose to the NFC, period. No, seriously, he is 23-1 all time with the only loss coming to the Giants lol. This should be a hell of a game with a lot of big names, dominating the 4pm slate.
Bills -6.5 vs. 49ers: San Francisco is reeling, can’t stay healthy, likely to miss the playoffs and now you’re telling me they have to travel to Buffalo at night? Yeahhhhh no thanks. Joshua Allen knows this is his year, and he MUST – no, he WILL beat up on this injured broken 49er team.
Here’s a freaky ass Thanksgiving tweet from the official PETA page. Enjoy
Love you guys,
TWD
Say something, I dare you