Another week, another batch of CFP Rankings to fuss at. For those who genuinely thought Alabama would be left out, I envy your naïveté and giddy optimism. For those who saw this coming from a mile away, you know the drill, buckle up and be prepared for them to make some noise. With 11 of the 12 spots pretty much wrapped up, we await the ACC CG winner, and if Clemson can do it, is there an argument for SMU to stay in and bump Bama out? Probably not, but let’s get into that, much more hypotheticals and some picks.
As you all may or may not know, Jordan Love is unbelievable during Toyotathon, and lucky for him, we’re balls deep into the widely celebrated 2-month long event. Unlucky for him, he faced the biggest balls in the NFL – Daniel ‘Josh Allen” Campbell. A fantastic game that I maybe watched 4 minutes total of (some of us are busy sometimes, okay? so shut the hell up) can be summed up by the photos below. Jared Goff played great, connecting with Jameson Williams consistently on big downs, and despite an awesome 3 TD night from Packers RB Josh Jacobs (my fantasy team thanks you King), Green Bay was shite offensively all night. Yes, I’m aware they scored 31 points, but I just looked at the box score and the numbers SUCK. They did cough up a fumble, which probably cost them the game, but it’s not like Jordan Love had an average Joe Burrow game and lost. No, he played well below his ability and seemed unable to get a grove going tonight. Credit to the Lions defense for forcing that turnover and to the offense for executing a game winning drive. The Lions have officially clinched a playoff spot, and are still holding onto that #1 seed at the moment. Things are starting to heat up!
Friday Night
Mountain West Championship
#20 UNLV @ #10 Boise State (BOIS -4 T: 57.5) 8:00pm on FOX
The regular season may be over, but Friday Night Lights lives on. A rematch of the 2 best Mountain West teams, lets gooooooo! These teams met in late October in a close game decided by just 5 points. In that game, a 2 yard Ashton Jeanty rushing TD gave the Broncos the lead early in the 4th, and they never gave it up. Will this time be different? The haters will point out that this was Jeanty’s worst statistical game all year (he had a measly 128 yards on 33 carries & 1 TD) but he has more than just a conference championship to play for, as this will be his last chance to win over Heisman voters. Per sources, (literally every sportsbook) Travis Hunter is the HEAVY favorite to win it, so Jeanty will need a 400 yard 6 TD performance, or something like that, to sway any previously decided voters. For that reason, I’m gonna stick with the Broncos to win and cover the 4 points here, locking them into a top 4 seed. If the Rebels want a chance to win this game and cause utter chaos, they will have to commit to stopping Jeanty while also respecting the passing ability of QB Maddux Madsen, who has flying under the radar this year, posting some admirable stats. UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams has been playing great football since the loss to Boise, so if they win, it’ll be due to death by air and by land, utilizing his dual threat ability. It should be a really fun one, and as an Ashton Jeanty truther, I need a MASSIVE game from the boy.
Saturday Noon
Big 12 Championship
#16 Iowa State @ #15 Arizona State (ASU -2 T:49.5) 12:00pm on ABC
All the talking heads want to discuss this week is the SEC & ACC and how the winner of those championship games could shake things up yada yada yada. I’m here for ALL of it, including this beauty at noon tomorrow. Important note – Arizona State star WR Jordyn Tyson is officially OUT this game with an undisclosed shoulder injury, getting season ending surgery last week. That is a pretty big blow for the Sun Devils, as Tyson leads the team in every receiving category this season, amassing 75 catches 1100 yards and 10 TDs through 12 games. Arizona State will lean heavily on big RB Cam Skattebo, who has been a man on a mission this season (127 YPG, 1,866 total yards & 17 TDs). Skattebo goes up against the Big 12’s 14th ranked rush defense in Iowa State, so I love him to put up some big numbers. On the other side of the ball, ASU CB Xavion Alford has been as lock down as anyone this year, allowing only 7 receptions and 76 yards ALL SEASON in 424 coverage snaps. However, he will have his hands full facing the two headed monster that is ISU WR’s Jaylin Noel & Jayden Higgins. Those two have combined for over 2,100 yards and 15 TDs, giving QB Rocco Becht (sick name) his best year as the Cyclones QB. I think this should be a lot of fun and a great start to Championship Saturday, I’m gonna take the over 49.5 here, because points are fun and I like both of these squads. #fillmyholeswithpoints
P.S. – If Clemson manages to upset SMU, I think the winner of this game gets the 4 seed, pushing the ACC Champ (Clemson in this scenario) to the 11 or 12 seed. Something to note.
Saturday Afternoon
SEC Championship
#5 Georgia @ #2 Texas (TEX -3 T: 49.5) 4:00pm on ABC
Our 2nd rematch on Championship Saturday features the Dawgs and the Longhorns. This game will be in Atlanta, GA, all of 45 minutes away from UGA’s campus. “So… Is this a home game for the Dawgs?” Kinda. Technically speaking, no, because they split the tickets right down the middle (16,300 to each school to be exact), however I bet there is more red than burnt orange in Mercedes Benz come tomorrow. It feels right though, since UGA had to travel to Texas to play the Longhorns back in October, that now Texas has to go east to play in UGA’s backyard.
So, how does this game play out? Well, I would be SHOCKED if HC Steve Sarkisian allowed another 7 sack game, but you never know. I imagine he will lean on his stud RB Quintrevion Wisner, who is HOT, coming off back to back 150+ yard performances & averaging over 5 yards a carry. In addition to that, Texas is overall more healthy on both sides of the ball, but the same can be said for the Dawgs. The last note I have about Sark, is that he is definitely going to have a short-down Arch Manning rushing package ready, given the success running QBs have had against the Dawgs all season. We all saw what Jalen Milroe and Haynes King (never thought they’d be mentioned in the same sentence) did to UGA on the ground, so it’d be stupid to not implement some QB run package.
For the Dawgs – they just need the non-eyeblack non-pacifier mouthpiece version of Carson Beck. Also, someone lock Arian Smith in his hotel room, trust me – the Dawgs will benefit. Kirby has to like what he didn’t see from his defense last week, so he can go full drill sergeant mode and fabricate hate comments to inspire this team. As I mentioned above, the Dawgs defense dominated the trenches in the last meeting, sacking him 7 times, and holding them to just 29 yards rushing. Offensively, I know Carson Beck is looking to avenge that ASS performance (175 yards & 3 INTs) he put on paper, so maybe he will come out slingin that bitch around.
Verdict: It’ll come down to ball security on both sides. In big moments, Quinn Ewers has struggled as of late. Against Texas A&M he threw a 90 yard pick 6 and gave up a redzone fumble, and hasn’t really looked confident down the stretch. I think everyone and their mother is aware of Carson Beck’s ‘Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde’ moments, so no need to dive into that. It feels like these teams are on a collision course to meet 3 times this year, so in Round 2, I’m gonna ride with the Dawgs to cover the 3 point spread and keep this tight, realllll tight.
Saturday Night
Big Ten Championship
#3 Penn State @ #1 Oregon (DUCKS -3.5 T: 50.5) 8:00pm on CBS
Ew, CBS night game. If you would’ve asked me what the line would be in a neutral site game between these two teams a few weeks ago, I would’ve probably said Oregon -9.5. Seeing them as low as -3.5 is interesting… and it feels like a trap… so let’s look into this a bit.
Oregon, undefeated and ranked #1 in the country, enters this game as the betting favorite to win it all. QB Dillon Gabriel has been putting up Heisman caliber numbers (275 YPG & 31 total TDs) and leads a Top 10 ranked offense in PPG & yards per play. The Ducks have a solid run game, led by stud Jordan James (1166 yards & 13 TDs) and have pretty much been an unstoppable force offensively all season. Defensively, they have only allowed more than 20 points 3 times all year (one of those was Ashton Jeanty & Boise St. btw), and they get after the QB consistently.
Enough about the Ducks, how’s Penn State?? They’re frauds. 11-1 with a 7 point loss to Ohio State, doesn’t this feel like familiar territory? Isn’t Ryan Day just the Michael Jordan of James Franklins? Anyway, all that to say this – James Franklin lovessss losing these games. With no threat of playoff eviction, I just don’t see the vision where the Titty Lions win this game, I’m sorry. Say something nice about Penn State – They have a hell of a RB duo! But yeah, they have a sub par QB who I do not trust down the stretch and a head coach that get’s explosive diarrhea every time he tries to win a close game. If you couldn’t already tell, I’m all over the Ducks to win here and cover.
ACC Championship
#17 Clemson @ #8 SMU (SMU -2 T: 55.5) 8:00pm on ABC
Our last game of the day belongs to the almost dead Clemson Tigers and the nearly undefeated SMU Mustangs. It’s been a great year for some of these rookie conference teams (SMU, Texas, Oregon) as they have all made it through their respective conference schedules and to championship weekend. Unfortunately (or not) for SMU, they have to play the machine that is Clemson. Whether you want to believe that or not, respect Dabo Swinney and what he has built over there. I kinda hate the guy, you know, for his uncanny ability to be the corniest dude alive and all, but he is 1 of the 2 active HC’s with a ring, and that holds weight.
The Tigers have had a real up and down season, with a lot of lows, and one high. The lowlights include a blowout loss to UGA to open the season, a double digit home loss to a ranked Louisville team, and a home collapse in a huge rivalry game against USC. The one high being gifted the opportunity to wash their hands completely of a season full of sin with one single win against this SMU team. We know who Clemson is, but who is Southern Methodist University??
Allow me to illustrate in 100 words or less. The #8 ranked Mustangs have had quite the year. The one blemish came back in September as they welcomed the Mormon men of Brigham down to Texas and were tragically defeated by 3 points. After that loss, they went on a tear – beating 4 ranked teams in a span of 6 weeks. The Stangs are led by sophomore QB Kevin Jennings, who while young and inexperienced, has been playing better ball each and every week. The dual threat QB out of central Texas will have to be near perfect against the Tigers, as he has not faced a front 7 quite like this before.
Verdict: Clemson is gonna win this game. I just think it’s gonna be up to SMU to keep it tight enough and competitive throughout to convince the committee they belong in the CFP. If they keep it within single digits, which I think they can, I believe they should usurp Alabama’s spot and get in. Will that happen? Unlikely, in which case we would have much much bigger problems, but that’s a conversation for another newsletter. Clemson wins.
PrizePicks TD Scorers of the week are brought to you by Dude Wipes.
If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about getting in the trenches & getting their butts in the (end) zone, it’s Dude Wipes.
Puka Nacua – I had a dream a few nights ago that I threw 4 TDs to Puka in this very game against the Bills. Trust yourself #dreamer
Bucky Irving – Rode with him last weekend and he cashed for us. Going up against the Raiders and back at home, book it.
Saquon Barkley– Mr. MVP himself back in the Linc up against the Panthers? Yeah, he’s scoring twice.
Alvin Kamara – This is your weekly “pick whichever RB is playing the Giants” play. Love the spot
Tony Pollard– TP20 has been sneakily putting up a career year in Tennessee, nobody knows it because it’s the Titans. The Jags are in shambles and need to fire Doug Peterson, until that happens, take RB’s against that defense.
Joe Burrow – We’re having fun with this one. Take Joseph o277.5 passing yards, and I’d ladder it all the way up to 325. The dude is on an INSANE tear recently, and I see him torching the Cowboys in primetime to finally win a game.
NFL Quick Picks – YTD 38-35
Falcons @ Vikings o44.5: Kirk Cousins revenge game? Not according to him, but after playing QB like Ray Charles last weekend, this is a great bounce back spot. This Vikings defense has wavered a bit recently and I think it’s a great recipe for points.
Cardinals -2.5 vs. Seahawks: Battle of the Birds. Coming off a tough 1 point loss at Minnesota last weekend, Arizona returns home ready for a massive divisional game. The two teams met two weeks ago, and Arizona was held to just 6 points, I don’t see that happening again. Kyler and his birds defend the nest and pick up a big win.
Browns +6.5 @ Steelers: Give me another Jameis snow game please. Pittsburgh HC Mike Tomlin is essentially Thanos, as everything he strives for results in equal balance. That means he needs to start losing games if he’s to finish just above .500 for the year. The Browns have been playing inspired football, and this is a great spoiler spot. I think God hears Jameis’ prayers and he delivers him from the curse of Pick 6’s.
Bills @ Rams u49.5: This is a very high total, and it is a 4:25pm game (where overs go to die). McVay and Stafford are pushing for a wild card spot and up against the hottest team in the NFL. I think the crystal ball says time of possession is the name of the game here, so run that clock. The Bills are fresh off the snowy ass blasting of the 49ers, and MVP Josh Allen is in prime form, which I think is inflating this line a bit.
Chargers +4.5 @ Chiefs: A SNF game in Arrowhead and I am picking the away team to cover. This might be a huge mistake but who cares. I’m fully bought into Jim Harbaugh and this Chargers squad #BoltUp. I’m sure some Mahomes witchcraft will secure them a last second win somehow, but I think it’s a dogfight for 60 minutes.
Bengals @ Cowboys o49.5: Sometimes you don’t have to think too hard about these picks. This is one of those picks. This Bengals defense is about as effective at stopping an offense as Ryan Day is
That’s all from me folks, but since some of you will be celebrating a conference championship win (or sulking from a heartbreaking loss), here is a quick reminder on the effects of alcohol and tobacco.
Love you guys,
TWD
