Man, things have been wild the last few weeks. The transfer portal is officially open, the coaching carousel is in full motion, Bowl season is upon us, and Q4 is rearing it’s ugly head and sending me into a Frank Ocean fueled depression. However, just as James Bond famously said in his most recent film, this is No Time To Die, so we push on. It’s a wonderful time of year with a lot of great football ahead of us in the coming weeks, so don’t let this mandatory family time distract you from what REALLY matters – winning your Bowl Pickem Pools. Cozy up by the fire, pet the family dog and enjoy this Postseason preview.
Friday
#10 Indiana @ #7 Notre Dame(ND -7.5 T: 51.5) 8:00pm on ABC
The Battle of Indiana between two 11-1 teams. My boots on the ground reporter Stinky Pete is in South Bend and telling me to expect freezing temps for tonight. Do you think the old adage ‘You are what your record says you are’ applies here? If so, we have one team with no ranked wins, a double digit loss to the #8 team in the country and a chip on their shoulder to prove they belong, and another 11-1 team that lost to Northern Illinois. This one is interesting, because a lot of the haters should want Indiana to get smoked here, to maintain the integrity of the ‘strength of schedule’ argument, but those same people usually hate Notre Dame too, so it’s weird. Who do you cheer for? I think these teams are more similar than people think: both have QB’s who have put up good numbers, RB’s who have carried them to wins, a defense that can play with anyone, and neither have won a significant postseason game in over 3 decades (ND is 0-8 in BCS/NY6 games all time).
If I was a gambling man (I am), I would forecast this game as “super close” and a “barn burner” but in all honesty I think it’ll be kinda boring. Indiana has a little more sauce to them and I’ve been smoking that CIGnetti pack all year so I’m gonna keep ripping em. You mix all that with my lack of faith in Notre Dame’s ability to win a big time postseason game, and you get the Hoosiers +7.5.
Saturday
#11 SMU @ #6 Penn State (PSU -8.5 T: 54.5) Noon on TNT
TNT? Is this game really being broadcasted on TNT? What in the ass is that all about? I must’ve missed some kinda broadcasting agreement between the powers that be, but I’m not sure I like this. What if the score-bug sucks? Idk, maybe it won’t matter at all and my bitching and moaning is meaningless, but I don’t care. Now, to the B1G game.
Expected weather conditions are set to be in the low 20’s with a chance of snow fall. FOOTBALL WEATHER BABY. SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee has decided to get out in front of that issue by addressing it earlier this week, saying “Rain, snow, sleet or fire, my Mustangs are always ready to gallop.” No, he didn’t actually saying something that gay, but he did note that “Penn State also has to play in this cold weather, and we’re gonna make it difficult for them”. If you’re only familiar with this SMU team from the ACC championship game, let me enlighten you on their journey this season. 11-1 regular season, best win is Duke (9-3), 0-2 vs. Top 25 teams and a 3 point loss to 3 loss Clemson. Now, to say something nice about them, they have two electric playmakers on offense – QB Kevin Jennings and RB Brashard Smith who are very fun to watch. On the other side, I feel like we know this Penn State team well. 2 great, dynamic running backs, an awesome tight end, good competitive play-making QB who occasionally looks like shit, and a Top 5 defense in the country. QB Drew Allar just announced he is returning next year, which surprised a lot of people, especially since his draft stock is the highest it’s ever been at the moment. Leading the way for the Tittany Lions is HC James Franklin, who is historically horrible in big games. Does this qualify as a big game? I suppose it will if he loses, and it won’t if he wins. I’m not quite sure what to do here, because my heart says it would be awesome if SMU knocks PSU off at home, but my brain says ‘B1G fucks small’. Do I take an over? Maybe an under? No, never an under, even in this cold weather… unless of course it’s the perfect spot. Alright fine, I’m taking the o54.5 because I am a simple man who likes simple things, like cheering for points.
#12 Clemson @ #5 Texas (TEX -12 T: 51.5) 4:00pm on TNT
Recovering alcoholic seeking redemption vs Jesus’ 13th Apostle – ohhhh yeah, it’s gonna be a good one. No time for dilly-dallying, so let’s get into it. Texas is 11-2, with both losses coming at the hands of UGA, and has the #1 defense in the country, nice. Clemson is 10-3, with losses to South Carolina, Louisville and UGA, and narrowly made the playoff after falling apart at the end of the season. They SMOKED SMU in the 1st half of the ACC championship, but left the door open and continued to struggle putting a team away. They will need to start fast again if they want a chance to win this game, and I just don’t see that happening. Sark has had 2 weeks to prep for this matchup, and I would HOPE he learned from his mistakes in the SEC championship game and can button up the redzone stalling issues. The Longhorns moved the ball with ease all game against the Dawgs, but turned into a deer in headlights as soon as they got in the red area, leaving so many points on the board. I expect to see some Arch Manning, especially in that area, in this matchup with the Tigers. Clemson’s big boys up front can hang with the best of ’em at times, but the defense is very getable in the secondary and occasionally on the ground, as the Tigers rank 70th in pass yards allowed per game and 77th in yards per rush allowed. I see a healthy dose of RB Quintrevion Wisner and easy throws on the outside to get Ewers rolling early. My model (vibes) says Texas controls this game and wins, but Clemson fights to the end and back door covers. So I’ll take the Tigers +12, assuming Dabo will get the boys fired up enough to make this competitive.
#9 Tennessee @ #8 Ohio State (OSU -7.5 T: 45.5) 8:00pm on ABC
If you’re like me (perpetually online) you know that the shit talking between these two fanbases has been legendary. Tennessee changed the name of Ohio State’s football stadium to ‘Neyland North’ and has apparently been snagging enough tickets to make this resemble a neutral site game. I for one love the B1G and SEC rivalry, and think this game will be awesome. Another Deuce correspondent, Charles Entertainment Cheese, is in Columbus reporting heavy snowfall, snow bunny sightings and dangerous levels of cold sore threats. Thanks Chuck, however we anxiously await your weather reporting soon.
On paper, these teams match up perfectly. Tennessee ranks among the Top 5 nationally in scoring defense, total defense and third-down defense. Ohio State’s offense ranks Top 5 in yards per play and Top 20 in total yards per game. We know what the Buckeyes want to do – run the ball – but they should try to spread the field and utilize that top ranked WR room they have. With guys like Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate, they are a matchup nightmare for any secondary in the country. Recently the problem has been pointed at 3 people: HC Ryan Day, OC Chip Kelly (yes, that Chip Kelly), and starting QB Will Howard. These three have been on the receiving end of some consistent online hate and slander, most of it warranted, and all of it a bit extreme. This is a 2 loss team that has lost both games by a combined 4 points, has a $20M roster, and a home playoff game, relaxxxxx. If you’re a Ryan Day hater, I get it, the guy truly was born on 3rd base and thinks he hit a triple, but he has one chance to make things right. If he loses this game then I get it okay, fire him.
Verdict: I like the Vols man. I see the +7.5 and that feels like a lot in this game. My only fear is putting my faith in Nico Iamnotexactlyagoodqb, he hasn’t proven anything yet. Every good defense he has faced he has struggled a bit, but the deciding factor in this game is Dylan Sampson. If you don’t know that name, you will. The Tennessee RB has run for 100+ in 10/12 games and led the SEC in yards per carry, yards per game and total touchdowns. I think Sampson is the difference maker in this game and slows the game down enough to keep this within one score. Vols +7.5.
PrizePicks Props & TD Scorers of the week are brought to you by Dude Wipes.
If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about getting down in the trenches & their butts in the (end) zone, it’s Dude Wipes.
Isaiah Pacheco – he’s all they way back from injury and overdue to score. Saturday football means chalk TD scorers
Nico Collins – this guy is a TD machine, 5 in the last 4 weeks. He finds it again tomorrow
Michael Penix Jr – o1.5 TD passes: He’s arrived and he plays the Giants, let the man SLING IT (sprinkle on o300 yards passing)
Jahmyr Gibbs – o90.5 rush yards & TD: Our wagon David Montgomery is out for the season with a knee injury so it’s gonna be all Gibby here.
Tony Pollard – Quietly having a career year in Tennessee, TP20 loves scoring, especially against a bottom 5 defense like the Colts.
Saquon Barkley – I will continue to take him every weekend, even if Jalen Hurts keeps vulturing his goaline touches.
NFL Quick Picks – YTD 43-42
I am heading in the wrong direction, as I approach .500 for the season. We remain net positive though and the Props/TD scorers have been consistent, so that’s nice. Just as I foresaw in last weeks post, it’s Michael Penix Jr. time in Atlanta, as the not-so-young man will get his opportunity to sling it around the yard against the G men of the North.
Lions -6.5 @ Bears: lost to the Bills last week and will bounce back against this depressing Chicago team
Bengals -9 vs. Browns: Burrow and company have their backs against the wall and are fighting for their life every week. Also Jameis got benched (Booooo) & DTR sucks.
Steelers +6.5 @ Ravens: Mike Tomlin is a wizard and they just do not lose to the Ravens. They keep it tight here
Rams -3 @ Jets: Stafford, Kupp, Puka, Kyren = Playoff team, nuff said.
Bucs -4 @ Cowboys: Baker Mayfield against a horrible NFC pass defense = 300+ yard game and 3 TDs. DUB
Winner: Hometown heroes. These are your glue guys, your champions around the holiday season as out of towners return home. We all know em and we all choose to love them for a few hours every year. These legends decided to hold it down in their hometown and become a walking repository for all things drama and High School sports. Personally, it’s one of my favorite reasons to return home around the holidays because I always learn something new. Whether it’s finding out the horse girl from 8th grade English is having her 3rd kid with 3 different men, or that the old High School librarian is locked up for selling fentanyl to middle schoolers (true story). Either way, it is a fantastic and necessary distraction from the mandatory family time we all experience at some point while being home. If you’re out there, reading this as one of these heroes, just know I appreciate you and look forward to talking to you about how you made Varsity lacrosse as a freshman despite your small stature.
Loser: NFL Redzone. Those fucking idiots man, you had something beautiful, perfect and consistent, and you ruined it. For those that are not perpetually online or avid watchers of Redzone, let me bring you up to speed. Redzone first launched 15 years ago way back in 2009, with Scott Hanson hosting what would quickly become known as “8 hours of commercial free football”. Well, they can no longer claim that moniker as they have SOLD OUT. Last Sunday 12/15, those sneaky bastards at Redzone aired not one, not two, but THREE commercials during their alleged “commercial free football” window. Per NFL corporate, “The NFL does not currently have plans to test the ads again, according to someone with direct knowledge of the league’s thinking. Any permanent change would only be considered for the 2025 season, at the earliest.” Is nothing sacred? Must we monetize everything? My faith in humanity has never been lower. The last thing I’ll say on this is go easy on Scott Hanson. Our bladder controlling King had no say in this decision, and if I know him half as well as I pretend to, I know he is disappointed and ashamed. I’ll continue to accost NFL executives on X.com, the everything app, (Twitter for my old heads) and let you guys know of any progress made.
That’s all I’ve got folks. If you’re traveling for the Holidays this weekend, stay safe out there (unless you fly Spirit, that’s just natural selection at this point)
Here’s your weekly meme
Love you guys,
TWD
Say something, I dare you