Did I go 8-2 in my CFB and NFL picks last week? Yes, yes I did. Are you going to hear me brag about it throughout the duration of this week’s newsletter? Absolutely not, I am a man of modesty and understanding. I realize that while I may have exhibited a very real and supernatural level or precognition last week, that is fleeting. There is no greater evidence of that other than my Week 1 picks where I went 1-7, like the dumbest boy in school. So I am going to ride this high of being the knower of all things football right into our Week 3 Preview.
But first, some house keeping.
In what was supposed to be a pretty boring Week2 slate of games, we got some awesome moments – Florida lost to USF (as some geniuses predicted), John Mateer and Oklahoma defended the SEC’s honor in their defeat of Michigan, and Baylor is gonna be so fun.
The BIG News
1. To kick start our day we got my Baylor Bears coming back from down 14 late in the 4th to defeat #17 SMU in double overtime. This game absolutely ruled. QB Sawyer Robertson threw for 440 yards, 4 TDs and no INTs, while RB Bryson Washington added 115 & 2 scores on the ground. SMU looked decent but both the defenses in this game were getting run through like prime Marilyn Monroe in the 50’s. I am still backing my Bears as the Big 12 champs, but I’ll need to see some changes defensively to feel confident.
2. Staying in the Big 12, let’s check in on Arizona State. Surely they went into Starkville and took care of business, right? I mean I saw the videos of players and coaches shaking cowbells at practice to prepare, so surely they acclimated in time and got the win? Oh, oh no, I’m afraid I’m being told that the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 lost to the preseason “worst team in the SEC”?!?! Wow, how times changed. As it turns out, the Bulldogs have grit, and QB Blake Shapen is NOT ass. In fact, when ASU took a 20-17 lead, the young man led the dogs down the field and threw a 58 yard strike to Brenen Thompson for the win. Arizona State came out on a 3rd and long and blitzed the house, giving Thompson enough space to burn his man and take that post all the way to the house. A field storming shortly ensued, as the students impressively disassembled the goal posts and carried them all the way through campus. This was States first ranked win in nearly 3 years, and it’s first home ranked win against an out of conference opponent in nearly 35 years, so congrats to all my #HailState fans out there enjoying this one.
3. Next we move to the battle for the state of Florida, where Billy Napier is now 2 losses away from being the highest paid bag boy Kroger has ever seen. His Gators fall the red hot USF Bulls 18-16. Truth be told I did not watch much of this game, but my top sources (a diehard UF fan and Twitter) have confirmed three things – 1) Billy Napier needs to forfeit play calling duties to his offensive coordinator, because right now the offense is ASS. 2) DJ Lagway might not be the guy just yet, he has a lot to learn. 3) Florida might not win 4 games this year. Some of things might be exaggerations, but there’s always a bit of truth in jest. What we do know is USF moves to 2-0, with another away game this weekend at #5 Miami. Can the Bulls keep the magic alive for one more week? Alternatively, Florida is staring down the barrel of guantlet of games; @ #3 LSU, @ #5 Miami, home vs #7 Texas, @ #15 Texas A&M and the neutral site game against #6 UGA.
4. Lastly we talk about future Heisman trophy winner (yes, I’ve added him to the short list) John Mateer. The Sooners QB threw for 270 yards and ran for 75, notching 3 total TDs in the 24-13 rout of Michigan. Watching him play QB is the closest depiction we will get to a real life chicken running around with his head cut off. Mateer’s “Fuck it just chuck it” play style is electric to watch, as he throws rockets all across the field, regardless of it being the right play to make. Pair that with a fast and physical coached Brent Venables defense and Oklahoma looks fun again. On the other side, Michigan true freshman QB Bryce Underwood posted the lowest QBR of any FBS QB thus far this season, with a measly 38.3. The Wolverines struggled pretty much all game, aside from the one 75 yard TD run from RB Justice Haynes. With a few tough games later in October coming up, Michigan will have to figure it out offensively to stay in the CFP hunt.
Other News:
Kansas State continues the nightmare as they travel to Manhattan and lose to America, I mean Army 24-21. Nico IamareallystinkyQB and his UCLAss Bruins lose to Dan Mullen and the UNLV Rebels. 30-23. USC smokes Ga. Southern 59-20 and it is officially time to put Jayden Maiava on your radar for dark horse Heisman watch. Vanderbilt is 2-0 after a big win @ Virginia Tech. Missouri holds off Kansas in an awesome game as predicted, the Tigers are 2-0. Clemson gives Troy a 16 point handicap before remembering how to play football again, they hold on 27-16. Ole Miss moves to 2-0 as they beat Kentucky at Kroger Field. Arch Manning SHINES (not really) against San Jose St. as Texas finds their footing again. Florida State hangs 77 on East Texas A&M (that school exists??) as they continue the momentum for another week.
NFL Quickie:
– Michael Penix Jr. and his long long wingspan weren’t quite enough to knock off the NFC South preseason favorite Bucs. The Dirty Birds showed a lot of promise offensively, but need to iron out the kinks in their secondary. Starting 4 rookies on defense will do that, but if they can mesh, this team is dangerous. Bucs win 23-20.
– Old man Aaron Rodgers might have some magic left in the tank as he throws for 4 TDs in his revenge game against the Jets. Justin Fields looked promising as well, maybe we’re in for a career revival for the kid? Steelers 34 Jets 32,
– Daniel Jones might be the best QB to ever play for the Colts on September 7th 2025. Danny Dimes was COOKIN (3 TDs) as he led the Colts to a blowout win over the Dolphins. Tua sucks, like reallyyyy sucks (114 yards & 2 INTs). Indy 33 Miami 8.
– The human ninja turtle made his debut for the Jags as they beat the Panthers 26-10. T-Law looked handsome, BTJ scored, and Bryce Young MIGHT be ass? The aforementioned Travis Hunter did play both ways so I guess he has officially arrived.
– Jayden Daniel’s is back, Deebo is fat but he is still good, the Giants are still very bad, Russ Wilson is also very bad, Malik Nabers is already pissed he’s not getting the ball, Giants lose 21-6 to the Commies.
– Arizona beat the Saints 20-13 and they should have to burn those awful jerseys as punishment.
– The battle of the Joes in Cleveland didn’t go as planned, Flacco threw it a lot, Burrow didn’t throw it enough but did get sacked 5 times, Bengals win 17-16.
– Raiders beat Patriots 20-13 in a game that happened. Ashton Jeanty scored though so that’s cool.
– CMC and the 49ers hold on 17-13 to beat the Seahawks. JSN is awesome.
– Cam Wards rookie debut was spoiled by Bo Pix and his stable of Broncos. 20-12 Denver.
– My Super Bowl pick Green Bay Packers dropped their nuts on the Lions in a 27-13 win. The absence of Ben Johnson has the Lions in full hangover mode.
– Matthew Stafford becomes the 10th QB in NFL History to reach 60k career passing yards as the Rams take care of the Texans 14-9.
– Ravens and Bills played in one of the best Sunday Night Football games I’ve ever seen. Both MVPs were showing off for us – Josh Allen 400 pass yards 4 total TDs, Lamar Jackson 280 total yards & 3 total TDs. Oh yeah and Derrick Henry is still that DUDE (182 yards 2 TDs.) Bills win 41-40 via a last second Matt Prater field goal.
We’re back to a full slate of good games. Let’s get into it.
#12 Clemson @ Georgia Tech (CLEM -3.5 T: 51.5) Noon on ESPN
Week 3, are we gonna continue to trust Cade Klubnik? My big dumb brain says 3 strikes and you’re out, and the young man is staring at a full count here. Working in his favor however, is the fact that the starting pitcher can barely walk, so his chances of getting a hit are much higher than it would be otherwise. The “pitcher” in question here is Georgia Tech QB Haynes King, who is currently listed as questionable coming into this game (Lower body injury). Head coach Brent Key was asked about Kings status and probability of playing, to which Key replied, “Yeah Haynes is a QB on our roster and we have a game on Saturday, he’s a good guy, we have a big game against Clemson coming up”, well articulated, Brent. Clearly he will be a game time decision, and if he plays, it’s looking like he won’t be close to 100%. With a healthy Haynes King, I think the jackets have a real chance at upsetting this overall disappointing Tiger team, but without him I’m taking Clemson. Backup QB Aaron Philo is a Georgia native and can sling it, but his inexperience vs a really good defense makes me hesitant to trust him. For Clemson, just don’t play like shit man, remember that you have some of the top talent in the country at every position and just play your game. QB Cade Klubnik has been indecisive and looked flustered in the pocket at times, but last week he seemed to have found a little juice late in the second half against Troy. I think Vegas is pretty spot on with this line (shocker) but I am gonna take the team loaded with NFL talent, with a National Championship head coach and Heisman candidate QB (I’m still delusional and hopeful). Gimme the Tigers to win and cover here. P.S. If and when that Iron Man QB Haynes Kings decides to announce he is playing, I reserve my right to move the line to -2.5, and still take Clemson to win, but I think they win by a field goal.
#6 Georgia @ #15 Tennessee (UGA -3.5 T: 49.5) 3:30pm on ABC
This one should be pretty fun. We’ve got a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde QB situation here when looking at these two teams – Tennessee transfer QB Joey Aguilar has been slinging the ball all over the place, and is the next coming of Josh Dobbs, and UGA QB Gunner Stockton currently ranks 126th out of the 130 eligible FBS QB’s in average depth per target. For you non stat nerds, that essentially means he is throwing the ball exclusively to the sidelines thus far, not taking any deep shots. So, based off those two facts alone, it’s looking like Tennessee and this high powered Top 5 offense will run UGA off the field, right? Well, no. Kirby Smart is 8-1 vs the Vols, and is currently on a 8 game win streak, with the average margin of victory being over 20 points. So the next logical thought would be, “Oh so Kirby will have the boys ready to roll and they’ll kick the shit out Tennessee”, and you’d be a little warmer but maybe a bit overzealous. It will be pretty dependent on one man, Gunner Stockton. The young QB hasn’t exactly looked impressive against the Marshall Thundering Herd or Austin Peay Governors, so I understand people’s hesitancy in the Dawgs, but personally I trust Kirby. I have to trust the K-Man to have Stockton ready to roll with a game plan of attacking Tennessee’s defense in two ways: #1 the defensive line. Georgia will be getting their 2 best offensive lineman back after they both suffered leg injuries in the season opener, so I foresee a boost in the run game and push off the line of scrimmage. Tennessee will be without star DT Daevin Hobbs, and have two other rotation anchor DT’s questionable as well. Mix that with UGA returning some of their best O-lineman and its a recipe for a heavy run game. I expect Gunner to use his legs to extend plays and when needed, take the shots on the outside to his playmakers outside against a weakened Vols secondary that will be without both starting corners. RB Nate Frazier is the clear #1 in that backfield, but has had issues holding onto the football so we may see more of a running-back-by-committee with Chauncey Bowen and Dwight Phillips.
For the Vols it’ll be a similar fate, death or glory by QB. Joey Aguilar has impressed, but he’ll be facing one of the best defenses in the country on Saturday, and I’m not gonna forget about those games last year where he would piss himself against any defense with a pulse. Has he really changed, or will the speed and physicality of the Dawgs defense bring Joey back down to Earth? If I was a betting man, I’d lean on the latter. I’m not taking much stock in a win over Syracuse who may not even be bowl eligible, or a smattering against an FCS opponent, Ima need to SEE IT AGAINST THE SEC JOEY. For that reason, give me the Dawgs to go into Neyland and extend this win streak to 9 in a row.
#18 South Florida @ #5 Miami (MIA -17.5 T: 56.5) 4:30pm on The CW
Yes, you read that right, this game is being broadcasted on the CW. It’s so gross and to be honest with you I’m not even sure I have this channel. Hopefully it’s on YouTube TV but if not then I guess I’ll be visiting Crackstreams. Anyway, let’s check out these teams.
So I’m a little worried about my USF Bulls here, not gonna lie. It feels a little too good to be true for them to have back to back ranked wins within their own state. I mean don’t get me wrong, I’m #RidingTheBull, but I just think Miami is a bit tougher of an opponent than Florida was a week ago. The way that Miami defensive line looked against Notre Dame kinda scares me, and I’m also a little worried about my guy Byrum Brown and his love for taking big hits. He doesn’t really put the ball in harms way, i.e. he doesn’t really throw interceptions, but he’s run 31 times already in two games and has the lower body injuries of an 80 year old paraplegic. I think Miami will be able to get pressure with their front 4, and Reuben Bain will have a field day. For that reason I think Miami wins the game, Carson Beck plays decent as they hold a lead and move the ball against an average defense. The hard pick here is the spread, because Miami head coach Mario Cristobal LOVES blowing large leads and giving up garage time points late in games, so I think USF could back door cover here. For that reason, I’m sticking with my Bulls to not get blown out and to sneakily cover this 17.5 point spread. .
Florida @ #3 LSU (LSU -7.5 T: 48.5) 7:30pm on ABC
So, the Gators, pretty close spread, no? I mean this is the same Florida team that just lost in the Swamp to USF, right? So why am I staring at a one score spread against the supposed #3 team in the country. As I mentioned above, they lost to my USF Bulls in a rather embarrassing way last weekend. Head Coach Billy Napier is sitting on a seat so hot he’s one loss away from a Florida man sticking a fork in him. This spread is close, and to the untrained eye you’d be licking your lips ready to take LSU as the home one score favorites, but you’d be wrong. This is the Brian Kelly let down game, also known as the “Ohhh DJ Lagway is actually pretty good?!” game. Florida has a gauntlet of a schedule coming up, Napiers job is on the line, Lagway has been playing like shit, simple: it’s a get right game. There’s a reason Vegas is worried here, and I think seeing Clemson struggle a bit against Troy has people wondering what to make of this LSU team. We know the defense is aggressive, but Florida’s Oline is one of the best units in the country, and RB Jadan Baugh is an absolute unit. I think Florida runs the ball and Lagway makes some plays to keep Florida around. Winning in Death Valley is hard, but not impossible, and I think the Gators are actually a really good matchup here both at the line of scrimmage, and with the athletes on the outside. Gimme the Gators to keep this within the +7.5.
#16 Texas A&M @ #8 Notre Dame (ND -6.5 T: 49.5) 7:30pm on NBC
We wrap up our evening in Southbend, where the winless Fighting Irish will be defending the land against the Aggies of Texas A&M. I don’t have a ton to say here because Texas A&M has beaten up on UTSA and Utah State, but given up 22 and 24 points, and Notre Dame has just played the one game in Miami. Freshman QB CJ Carr will be fun to watch develop, and getting his first career home start should add some juice to his play. Some key spots I’m looking at here: 1) Notre Dame simply must feed Jeremiah Love. He is without a doubt their best player offensively, and somehow only managed to touch the football 10 times against Miami a few weeks ago. HC Marcus Freeman mentioned during the week that this will change, so I expect them to feed the best (take him to score). 2) Mario Craver. Get to know this name as he will likely be a nightmare for the Irish. The 5’9 160 pound WR for the Aggies is a transfer out of Miss. State and is averaging 118 yards per game, and 18 yards per catch. I expect them to use him in the slot and expose that weakness in the ND defense. We saw Miami use Malachi Toney in this exact way, and if A&M is smart, they’ve been watching film. 3) Run the damn ball. Both of these teams love to run the ball, and have some DUDES to do it. Freshman QB CJ Carr, and known not-so-good-thrower-of-the-football QB Marcel Reed will likely lean heavily on the run game, but that ND run defense will be ready (I think?). As for the Aggie defense, it’s not the best. For all these reasons I am staying away from the spread, and just gonna take the over 49.5 because idk what to do and I love points, so.
A little extra love for you guys because this week has so many good games and I want to mention a few other spots I love.
1. USC -20.5: Lincoln Riley runs up the score, Jayden Maiava will be in the Heisman race soon.
2. Oregon -27.5 (would play to -28): Dan Lanning loves recruiting problematic 5 star WRs and scoring as many points as possible on bad teams. They beat the hell out of Northwestern.
3. South Alabama +24.5: Don’t overthink it, Hugh Freeze is an idiot, South Alabama is frisky, they cover.
4. Arkansas +7 and over 61.5: Sorry Lane, you may lose this game outright. Shootout in Oxford and the Hogs just might walk outta there with the dub.
5. Vanderbilt @ USC over 49: Late night SEC fireworks in Columbia. Pavia vs. Sellers. Beamer Ball.
PrizePicks Props & TD Scorers of the week are brought to you by Dude Wipes.
If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about getting in the trenches & getting their butts in the (end) zone, it’s Dude Wipes.
DK Metcalf – Revenge game here vs his old team, Aaron Rodger’s is so petty I guarantee he will want DK to score.
Ceedee Lamb – the Dallas WR was spotted at 7 am on Friday on the jugs machine, clearly bothered by his career high 4 drops in the Thursday Night Football game the night before. He gets the Giants, and owns them historically.
Derrick Henry – If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. He is the King for a reason
Christian McCaffrey – this jackass wasn’t supposed to play last weekend but then he all of a sudden did. If he plays, he scores, simple as that.
Bijan Robinson – Speaking of wagons, I think Bijan will be our guy this season. Through the air or on the ground, this bird gets it done.
Saquon Barkley – keeping it pretty chalk here with Mr. Barkley. Super Bowl rematch and I expect him to have another big game.
NFL Quick Picks
I really don’t have a ton of fun leans here, nor a lot to say, and let’s be honest this has been dragging on. So, I’m just gonna pick some fun games/spots with no explanation.
– Falcons +3.5 @ Vikings
– Rams -5.5 @ Titans
– Bills -6.5 @ Jets
– Giants @ Cowboys over 43.5
– Browns @ Ravens over 44.5
– Jaguars +4.5 @ Bengals
– Colts +1.5 vs. Broncos
How are you guys feeling about the one issue per week? Personally, I kinda like it, it gives me more time to tweet at Jessica Alba, and one day she’s gonna see it, realize her immeasurable love for me, and we’ll become exclusive. If you would rather see me work on a Sunday afternoon to churn out a separate Recap post for Tuesdays, let me know and I’ll think about it.
For now, meme of the week time.
Love you guys,
TWD
