What a weekend of football. In College, we got an early ‘game of the year’ candidate in Knoxville that ended in OT fashion as Bobby Hill and the Vols drop 9 in a row to the Dawgs, we saw the Irish fumble the game away as the Aggies remain undefeated, and Dabo is losing his mind as the Tigers fall to Brent Key’s buzzing bees. In the NFL, I somehow went 7-0 in my picks so don’t count on that ever happening again, but Toe Burrow is out for 3 months, Jalen Hurts had 100 yards but the Eagles won because of course they did, and the Falcons put JJ McCarthy on fraud watch.
Let’s get into all that and look ahead at what the next 4 days has in store for us.
The BIG News:
1. We simply have to travel to Knoxville, TN to start this off. What an unbelievable game, even for Tennessee fans. To all my Vols out there (those that are capable of reading this), you’re gonna be just fine, I promise. Papa Heupel has this offense humming like a well oiled machine that throws 50/50 moon balls 25% of the time. Fortunately for you guys, you have a decently favorable schedule compared to most other SEC teams, and you competed with the cream of the crop. It looks like you have a guy in Joey Aguilar, and WR Chris Brazzell had as good of a coming out party as anyone I’ve seen in recent years (6 receptions – 177 yards – 3 TDs). Keep your head up and win some ball games and I think you’re back in the Yoffs. Maybe next year you guys will beat Kirby in Athens, ya never know.
For all my Dawgs out there, this one was a bit of an ass-puckerer wasn’t it? If you’ve watched the UT vs. UGA games in the last 5 years, you know its traditions or Tennessee to go down the field and score on their opening drive. What typically follows that is a Kirby Smart coached defense that hold the Vols to less than 20 points and the Dawgs win by 2-3 scores. Wellllll not this year. Tennessee jumped out to a 21-7 lead early and it looked like this might be the year Heupel has out schemed Smart. What Tennessee seemed to forget was a young man by the name of Gunner Stockton. Now, hand up time, I was not a believer. I wanted to see it to believe it, and he just about showed me everything I needed to see. The UGA QB, behind a 3rd string O-line in one of the most hostile places in the country, put up 23/31 for 340 yards and 3 TDS. Every time Tennessee threw a punch, he got up and answered with one of his own. The grit and fight in this kid was so fun to watch, and he made the big throws exactly when he needed to. The Dawgs offense and those transfer WRs look dangerous, and if they can figure out how to contest a 50/50 jump ball, watch out.
2. Jumping back in time here we need to head to Atlanta to figure out if Clemson is dead or not. I decided to ride with Cade Klubnik, and he didn’t just crash the car, no no no, he merged into oncoming traffic and we went head first in an 18 wheeler fuel tank. I am sitting here just as I was watching that game, confused. Two things can be true – 1) Clemson was beat up front on both sides and Tech proved to be the better team on Saturday. 2) Clemsons roster is wildly more talented than Georgia Techs. Give HC Brent Key all the credit in the world, he had his boys ready to ROLL. I told you guys of the Haynes King “Ooo he’s injured surely he won’t play well” gimmick and once again that malnourished mofo came out and put up 100 yards rushing on 25 carries. His ability to have patience in the gaps and find holes in the line as the play develops really separates him as a great runner, and Clemson just could not stop it. His arm was live as well, throwing for 210 yards, hitting on some big plays. This game just came down to who wanted it more, and Klubniks two turnovers and the Tigers inability to stop the Tech rushing attack late was the difference. I predicted it preseason but GT is a playoff team. They have no ranked opponents left other 11/28 vs UGA, and I see them in the ACC championship game against Miami in 3 months time. Clemson is probably dead, idk I am taking a week off on them and will check back the next time Dabo says something stupid.
3. Notre Dame, what happened to that generational defense man? Just one year ago, they had a top 3 defense in damn near every statistical category, now they couldn’t tackle Betty White in a phone booth. Yeah yeah yeah, Al Golden (former Defensive Coordinator) is gone and there was an expectation the defense would struggle a bit, but giving up two explosive plays over 50 yards long and 41 total points is no bueno. In your defense, Texas A&M hit not one but two home runs in transfer WRs KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. They combined for 11 catches, 291 yards and 2 TDs. QB Marcel Reed only completed 45% of his passes, but made them count, amassing 397 total yards. The Irish may have lost, but it was at the buzzer, and to a team with very real playoff chances. They also remembered that Jeremiyah Love exists, as he totaled 140 yards and 2 scores, so that is certainly a step in the right direction offensively.
So what does it mean? Glad you asked. For the Irish, win out and you’re in. “But they would still have two losses!!!” Okay, I do not care, they are ND and whether we like it or not, they will get in if they win out. Fortunately for most and unfortunately for Notre Dame, they will lose 10/18 vs USC and they’ll officially be dead, so do with that what you will. For the Aggies, congratulations, enjoy this win while you can, because the next 10 weeks are gonna be hell my friend. As it stands right now, they have 6 ranked opponents on the schedule, with potential for a 7th, and 3 of those are away. Get through that and you’re in, simple, right?
4. My poor, poor, poor South Florida Bulls man. For a second there I thought the back door cover was live, but Carson Beck really wants a Heisman so he decided to stat pad deep into the 4th. Miami looks pretty legit. The DL and OL might both be Top 3 units in the country, and if you protect Beck he can beat you. Sure, he’ll occasionally throw one of the worst interceptions you’ve ever seen, but he isn’t pressured then he is gonna beat ya. He finished with 340 yards and 4 total TDs, but did throw 2 of those dumbass INTs I mentioned he likes to throw. RB Mark Fletcher was my biggest takeaway, the kid is a bull. He runs hard and through most people, and has enough perimeter speed to make you respect it. Not too much to say here for USF, other than you did good kid. Starting the season against 3 ranked opponents and you come out 2-1, I’ll take that every day of the week. Now go beat the hell out of some FCS teams and win out. I’ll see ya in the playoffs!
Other News:
Here is a list of teams that won last week, enjoy: Indiana (play a real team already Jesus Christ) Oregon (Dante Moore is a fraud?), Oklahoma (Mateer Heisman campaign continues) Michigan, Alabama (are we sure they’re dead?), Auburn (didn’t cover though, shoutout the Cougs), Texas Tech (are they good?), USC (might also be good?), Iowa State (not good but undefeated), Texas (someone check on Arch I think he has polio or something), Illinois (Altmyer is fun), Ohio State (weird win but a win nonetheless), Ole Miss (sorry Arkansas you almost had it man), LSU (gross gross gross game. DJ Lagway is ass), Vanderbilt (GO DORES, undefeated btw), Utah (Dampier is fun), Penn State (play someone with a pulse you cowards)
– GB 27 Washington 16. We start at Thursday Night football where the Commanders traveled to Green Bay to get handed their first loss in Green Bay. I have officially seen enough, the Packers are winning the Super Bowl. QB Jordan Love is good, Josh Jacob’s is really good, and Micah Parsons is really really good. Mix that with a coach who likes to lose deep in the postseason and you’ve got an NFC Champ/Super Bowl favorite.
– Rams 33 Titans 19. Man the Rams are fun. Matt Stafford throwing to Puka and Adam’s is fun. Cam Ward will be good, but not yet. That is all.
– Seahawks 31 Steelers 17. I think both of these teams are kinda bad. I’m glad Sam Darnold is playing good football again and Aaron Rodger’s looked old this week. Shoutout Kenneth Walker.
– Bills 30 Jets 10. Josh Allen broke his nose, ouch, James Cook is really good, and the Jets are very very bad.
– Lions 52 Bears 21. Someone tell Dan Campbell that there is no run rule in football. I think every Lions player BUT Sam LaPorta scored on Sunday, so thanks for that Sam, I definitely didn’t need those TDs for my fantasy team.
– Cowboys 40 Giants 37. Sneakily one of the best games of the entire slate. Russ had his moon ball COOKIN, and fed Malik Nabers all day. Dak and the Boys offense put up 500 yards of offense and took it in OT.
– Ravens 41 Browns 17. What if I told you the Ravens scored 41 points with no rushing TDs and Derrick Henry being held to only 23 yards? Yeah well when you have the best passer in the history of the NFL (look it up doubters), you can do that. P.S it might be Dillon Gabriel time in Cleveland.
– 49ers 26 Saints 21. This game happened.
– Patriots 33 Dolphins 27. This game ALSO happened.
– Panthers 22 Cardinals 27. Believe it or not, this game ALSO happened.
– Bengals 31 Jaguars 27. Joes Burrow is out for 3 months after suffering a Grade 3 stubbed toe. The injury prone QB was knocked out early and it was Jake Browning time. The veteran backup looked pretty good, and won this game with 18 seconds left. P.S. to Brian Thomas Jr. – wassup man? Why are you scared to catch the football? What’s that all about?
– Colts 29 Broncos 28. We might need to have a conversation about Daniel Jones and the Colts if they keep winning games. It’s early, but HC Shane Steichen is making an impressive case for Coach of the Year discussions.
– Eagles 20 Chiefs 17. Is Jalen Hurts a top 30 QB in the NFL? People are talking on X, the everything app, it’s all happening on X, about where Hurts fits amongst the top QBs in the league. Whether you like his 100 yard 0 TD 1 turnover games or not, the dude wins, and that is a QB stat.
It may not look like anything crazy, but there’s some sneaky good games on the docket.
#17 Texas Tech @ #16 Utah (UTES -3.5 T: 57.5) Noon on FOX
If you’re like most people, you haven’t watched much of either of these teams thus far this season, so allow me to get you to speed.
Texas Tech: 3-0, with wins over Arkansas (Pine-Bluff), Kent State (common misconception but not in Kent, Washington for those confused), and Oregon State. Led by senior QB Behren Morton (wild name) who has put up some serious numbers through 3 games – 11 TDs to 1 INT, averaging 308 yards per game and completing 59% of his passes. The offense is more pass heavy given it’s stable of talented WRs, but does occasionally lean on RB Cam Dickey from time to time.
Utah: Also 3-0, with wins over UCLA (bad bad bad team), Cal Poly (better than UCLA) and Wyoming (still better than UCLA). Transfer QB Devon Dampier is a name to know, and if you listen to me ramble then you should already know it. The dual threat QB has been very good through the air and on the ground, yet to turn the ball over. Unlike Texas Tech, the heart of this team is and always will be the defense. They play physical and have athletes across the board, and the ‘bend don’t break’ style of play is similar to an SEC defense of old, and I think the difference in this game.
Gimme the Utes and HC Kyle Whittingham to protect Rice-Eccles Stadium, winning outright and covering the 3.5.
#22 Auburn @ #11 Oklahoma (OKLA -6.5 T: 47.5) 3:30pm on ABC
Not gonna overthink this, I’m loving this over. Hugh Freeze vs John Mateer just screams points to me, and I think we’re in for a fun game.
Auburn hasn’t really given us much to look at this year except an offensive explosion against Baylor, but we know their defense is about as scary as Helen Keller with a hand gun, so I’m not taking too much stock in that game. What I AM taking into account is the Jackson Arnold revenge game we’ve got here. Former Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold was rumored to have been strong armed out of the Sooner program and ‘suggested’ that he enter the portal, where he ran into the open arms of Hugh Freeze and the Auburn Tigers. I’m sure a little NIL money helped sway his decision, but that’s the modern game. Once he was out, the Sooners went after John Jingle Heimer Schmidt Mateer from Washington State, and he has fit in beautifully. His run and gun play style (I prefer ‘Fuck It just Chuck It’) has fit OC Ben Arbuckle’s style for years, which is why they were a package duo leaving Wazzou. The Sooners showed what they were capable of two weeks ago when they beat a solid Michigan team, but much like the Baylor Auburn game, I am taking that performance with a grain of salt.
This game is in Norman, the Sooners have a brutal schedule ahead of them, and when it comes down to it, I trust Mateer much more than I trust Jackson Arnold. Both are very dynamic with their ability to run, but Arnold hasn’t shown me much through the air to really give me confidence he can produce in SEC competition. Maybe he can prove me wrong Saturday, but I doubt it. Double dipping here but I convinced myself – Sooners to win and cover the 6.5.
A little off the beating path but those are the only games I’m gonna write up this week. Don’t feel inclined to spew nonsense about a Big Ten game between two teams that will miss the playoff, but I’ll give some additional spots I’m leaning this weekend:
1. Tulane @ #13 Ole Miss – over 61.5
– Points. Sumrall vs. Kiffin. Points
2. #7 FSU -44.5 vs. Kent State
– FSU is out to make a point this season. They cover large spreads, I don’t make the rules.
3. WVU @ Kansas – over 55.5
– Obligatory over. I love this game every year.
4. #23 Missouri -9.5 vs. South Carolina
– USC is fraudulent and Ahmad Hardy is the best RB in CFB. You will learn soon.
5. #4 Miami -7.5 vs. Florida
– I am 10000% done with DJ Lagway and his affinity for throwing the ball to the other team.
6. #9 Illinois +6.5 @ #19 Indiana
– Cignetti is unbearable and I love Altmyer and big Brett Bielema. Go Illini
PrizePicks Props & TD Scorers of the week are brought to you by Dude Wipes.
If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about getting in the trenches & getting their butts in the (end) zone, it’s Dude Wipes.
Bijan Robinson – we are gonna double dip a bit here. First and most obviously, he will score. Second, I love his receiving line of 25.5 so much, he cruises past this.
Daniel Jones – This is my attempt as a Johnathan Taylor fantasy football owner to jinx my way into some JT touchdowns. In his defense, DJ has been playing great football and is 3rd in QB goal line attempts.
Baker Mayfield – I love Baker, and since I’m already doing it once, I’m gonna do it again – I’m double dipping. Gimme the Heisman winner to throw for 2 TDs and run one in as well.
Saquon Barkley – it’s Saquon, don’t overthink it. Rams are winning tihs game by the way, more on that below though.
Patrick Mahomes – lotta discourse on twitter recently about how Patty Mahomes and the Chiefs might be dead… well maybe, but he leads the team in rushing and he’s finding the end zone.
Trevor Lawrence – not quite a rushing TD but let’s try throwing for 2 TDs here T-Law. You’ve been playing like cheeks and it’s a divisional game, get it together man.
NFL Quick Picks
No big deal but I may have gone 7-0 last week on these so listen up buttercup.
Rams +3.5 @ Eagles: As mentioned above, the Rams as winning this game, but I’m gonna take the spread here as well. I like this Rams offense with Matty Stafford slinging it, and the defense is full of young talent. Not to mention the Eagles have a running back at QB so if they can stop the run, game over.
Bengals @ Vikings over 41.5: Yes, this is a gross gross pick but it’s so gross that it.just.might.work. This is the Carson Wentz and Jake Browning game, people WILL remember this as the battle of the backups that scored 80 points.
Bucs -6.5 vs. Jets: Baker wins these football games against bad teams. Unless of course the Jets get the ever so rare “Tyron Taylor” bump, in which case I am not responsible for the outcome of this game.
Seahawks -7.5 vs. Saints: Spencer Rattler currently has a higher passer rating than Jalen Hurts, just for those keeping count (that is not a fact but I saw a tweet about it so surely it’s true). I liked Sammy Darnold and the Birds to keep rolling here.
Cowboys -1.5 @ Bears: The Bears are ASS. Caleb Williams desperately needs a big bounce back game, meanwhile Dakota Prescott has been playing some great football. Great is relative but he is slinging that pigskin around and the offfense is fun to watch again.
Lions @ Ravens over 53.5: Maybe one of the more chalk plays I’ll ever pick but it’s Monday Night Football and I want to see another generational game. Just put Lamar in prime time every week please and thanks.
To continue my trend of making fun of Jalen Hurts this week, here is a very real collage of photos showing his many expressions.
Love you guys,
TWD
