It’s officially fall, and whether I choose to accept that or not remains to be seen, as I will hold onto every warm day like it’s my last. I’m sure some of you freaks out there that are wishing for “cold weather” will be praying for summer warmth when you walk outside at 7 am to a coldness so brisk it can only be met with a body chilling “Fuckkkkkk”. So, join me in my delusion as we hold onto the last few weeks of warmth, or don’t, I don’t really care. What I do care about is football, I’m a large fan of the sport if you haven’t picked up on that. Another tally to the cons side of cold fall weather is fall weddings, and how they so inconveniently fall on some of the best College Football Saturdays of the year. If you have a wedding this weekend, I am sorry for your loss, but remember you’re not alone, and there are few quicker ways to make friends than looking for a tv or score update in the middle of a wedding ceremony. Speaking of weddings, I attended one last weekend, and had a fantastic time. Lucky for me, my good pal getting married picked our teams bye week AND happened to pick one of the worst slates of games thus far, so shoutout to him for that.
Due to my aforementioned absence from my normal duties of sitting in front of a tv and consuming 12-24 hours of football, this recap will be a little short today. Fear not though, I am extremely long winded and have been known to ramble, so I’m sure I’ll still find a way to hit the normal word count in the aggregate. We have an unbelievable Saturday of football tomorrow, so let’s quit dilly dallying and get right to it.
Some teams won, some teams lost (looking at you Clemson), and some teams didn’t play at all. To save us some time here (mostly me), I’ll hit on the BIG NEWS, and if you want more analysis then you can call me directly and we can chat. My direct cell is 911, call anytime between the hours of 3am-6:30am.
The BIG NEWS
– Clemson is officially dead. Most of you have known this, but seeing I predicted their QB to win the Heisman (oof) and them to win the Natty (enormous oof), I was a little more reluctant than most to admit it. They welcomed the Orange of Syracuse into their home and got the belt to ass treatment (34-21 Cuse). Don’t let the box score fool you, Klubnik and that offense are BUNS. Even though I’m literally admitting how wrong I was preseason, I still do not comprehend how. From an optics standpoint, this roster is Top 5 in the sport with the likes of UGA, Ohio State, etc. Multiple 1st round draft picks on both sides of the ball, yet they’re ass. It’s Klubniks fault, sure, but Dabo might be losing his mind. Not gonna beat a dead horse here, but I will kick a man when he’s down – they might be on 2024 FSU trajectory.
– The Big 12 runs through Lubbock, as Texas Tech goes to Utah and gives em tha biznesssss son! 34-10 is a little bit of an asswhooping, especially when you score 24 of the 34 in the 4th. I picked Utah here, hand up, and I just put too much faith in Devon Dampier. Mistakes happen, but I think Utah might be frauds, sorry. TTU is in the driver seat now, but has their entire conference schedule ahead of them. This is a conference of chaos, so anything can happen, but I’m loving this NIL infused Red Raider team.
– Oklahoma is so fun. Sorry to all my Auburn Tiger fans out there that believe they were cheated out of this game because of an illegal play, but between the kick six and the prayer at Jordan-Hare, I think it was your turn to be on the opposite side of some luck. For those that are wondering what happened, just google “Auburn mad Oklahoma cheat touchdown” and you’ll see. To be fair, it happened in the early 2nd quarter, and Auburn gave up TEN (yes 10) sacks, so that one play wasn’t quite the difference maker. As predicted, the QBs were the focus here, and despite Jackson Arnold having the pocket presence of Stevie Wonder, he played okay I guess. On the other side, John Mateer didn’t play his best game either, but it’s been released he broke his hand in the 1st quarter, and remained in the game. Absolute gamer this kid I’ll tell ya what. Mateer underwent success hand surgery on Tuesday, and is aiming to make his return in 3 weeks against Texas.
Other Bullshit
– Indiana might be this year’s Indiana. They absolutely SMOKED Illinois 63-10. Fernando Mendoza looks like one of the best QBs in the country right now.
– Missouri held on to beat South Carolina 29-20. People are starting to respect my boy Ahmad Hardy. Watch out for the Tigers… they’re sneaky
– Miami took care of business and holy shit am I glad I’m finally on the other side of a DJ Lagway stink fest. The young Gators QB finished the game with 53 TOTAL YARDS. YUCK. The Hurricanes are legit
– My Baylor Bears lost on a last second FG to Arizona State and move to 2-2. No bueno for me
– The Jayden Maiava Heisman campaign continues, as the Trojans win the battle of the Spartans. If you’re not on the Maiava train you might want to hop on now folks
Keeping this one tight too. We had a few really good games, I went 0-6 on my touchdown scorers (yikes) and the legend of Indiana Jones lives on.
– Colts 41 Titans 20: Daniel “Indiana Jones” Jones man, is he better than Lamar Jackson? People are beginning to murmur as the young Duke grad has more rushing TDs than the 2x MVP, AND his team is 3-0… all I’m sayin. The Titans are mega ass, just get Cam Ward reps and mail it in this year folks.
– Steelers 21 Patriots 14: Aaron Rodger’s threw his 509th career TD pass, as the padawan has officially surpassed the Jedi master, Brett Favre, on the all time list. Rhamondre Stevenson is addicted to fumbling.
– Jets 27 Bucs 29: Baker Mayfield, that’s it. For the 3rd week in a row the Miller Lite drinking QB has led a game winning comeback drive.
– Raiders 24 Commanders 41: Is Marcus Mariota the best backup QB in the NFL? His 118.6 passer rating would argue yes. Fun fact, RB Ashton Jeanty has more rush yards after contact (145) than he does total rush yards (144).
– Rams 26 Eagles 33: This will be the NFC championship.
– Bengals 10 Vikings 48: Carson Wentz, that’s all.
– Texans 10 Jags 17: Ew ew ew. Someone check on Brian Thomas Jr., he has a horrible case of the yips.
– Packers 10 Browns 13: Joe Flacco scored 13 points in the final 3 minutes of this game. GOAT?
– Broncos 20 Chargers 23: Justin Herbert MVP season. Go ahead and lock that up (lets get Ladd the rock a little more though eh?)
– Saints 13 Seahawks 44: Someone tell the Saints they don’t have to play the rest of the season, nobody wants to see this shit. EW
– Cardinals 15 49ers 16: Macaroni Jones and his 49ers are 3-0.
– Cowboys 14 Bears 31: Caleb Williams… good?
– Chiefs 22 Giants 9: Russ Wilson… very bad. It’s officially Jaxson Dart time in NY per HC Brian DaBoll.
It is time. We earned this guys and gals. What a beautiful site to see. Ranked matchups across the board, playoff hopes on the line, and somehow Notre Dame is still ranked. We have a lot to get to.
FRIDAY
#24 TCU @ Arizona State (ASU -3.5 T: 54.5) 9:00pm on FOX
We’re starting our weekend off right. Seeing that the Sun Devils beat my beloved Baylor Bears on a last second FG last week, I will do my best to remain unbiased here, in an attempt to maintain my journalistic integrity. With all that being said, the pick is simply the Horned Frogs to win outright. They go into Tempe and move into the passengers seat of the 2025 Jeep Grand Wagoneer that is this Big 12 race. Currently the wheel belongs to the Red Raiders, but this TCU team is tired of riding bitch seat and will use this game to claim navigation and music responsibilities up front.
SATURDAY
#22 Notre Dame @ Arkansas (ND -4.5 T: 63.5) NOON on ABC
Yeah, I teased ND about still being ranked despite being 1-2. Sureeee the 2 losses they suffered were against the #2 and #9 teams by a combined 4 points, but I don’t care, fuck em. Freshman QB CJ Carr will likely have a field day against this paper tiger “SEC defense” that ranks in the 90’s in every major defensive category. The Hogs can’t exactly stop the run, and by GOD if Notre Dame doesn’t give Jeremiah Love 25+ touches this game then Marcus Freeman needs to be lobotomized. For the Razorbacks, the key to the game is simple: QUIT FUMBLING IN THE REDZONE YOU DUMB MFERS. I have watched Arkansas have the last games IN HAND (in redzone with a chance to win the game late in the 4th Q) and fumble away the game. Happened in the Ole Miss game and then again in their disappointing loss to Memphis last weekend. HC Sam Pittman is as good as fired, pending some kind of miracle, which means OC Bobby Petrino (yes, that one) is the heir apparent. Scary hours in Fayetteville, but seeing that I will be boots on the ground, my heart tells me I’ll be screaming WOOO PIG SOOOIE tomorrow. Gimme Pittboss and his Hogs to keep this one tight and cover the +4.5.
#21 USC @ #23 Illinois (USC -6.5 T: 60.5) NOON on FOX
History might tell you that fading a team coming off a 9 score loss is the wrong move, due to the market overcorrecting & overreacting to one game, but history also says that George Washington had wooden teeth, so who cares. Since we’re getting historical, I typically love the Fighting Illini, and my quant is telling me I am 4-1 when picking them, and have never picked against them. Well, just like making a 6’3 possibly autistic man with wooden teeth our President, there’s a first for everything, so I’m on the Trojans here. Personally, I love fading this Illinois team in this specific spot, I don’t like the matchup. QB Jayden Maiava is completing 70% of his passes, averaging 315 YPG, and has a 9-0 TD/INT ratio. I love his game and I think they have a ton of film on an exploitable Illinois defense. Trojans win and cover the -6.5.
#4 LSU @ #13 Ole Miss (MISS -1.5 T: 57.5) 3:30pm on ABC
So, let me get this straight: the #4 team in all the land, with a top 10 win, is an underdog against the #13 team in the country starting a backup transfer QB from Division II school Ferris State? Okay, sure, why not, I mean I’ve seen crazier things I suppose. A lesser, uneducated man (me two weeks ago) wouldn’t care about this backup QB hype, and would pick the historically dominant program to win this game outright as underdogs. Fortunately for you all, I (an educated man) have done the necessary homework on this young Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss, and let me hit you with some facts. Last year at Ferris State, he led them to a 15-0 record, won the D2 championship, posted 2,900 passing yards and 26 TDs through the air, and added 1,100 and 25 TDs on the ground. He is a threat. As a fan, it will awesome to watch he and Lane Kiffin work to exploit this aggressive LSU defense, which ranks top 5 in pressure rate and blitz percentage. I expect LSU DC Blake Baker to use Harold Perkins in a roaming spy capacity, to limit Chambliss’ ability to make plays with his legs. Another matchup to watch here is LSU’s young but talented cornerbacks against this experienced Ole Miss WR core. WR Harrison Wallace is currently 4th in the nation in yards per reception, so I expect him to make a few big plays in this one.
If you haven’t guessed it already, my pick is gonna be the Ole Miss Rebels to win. Nussmeier will have to be Superman to win this game with the way the offense is struggling to run the ball, and I just don’t know if I see it. We should be in store for awesome game.
#6 Oregon @ #3 Penn State (PSU -3.5 T: 56.5) 7:30pm on FOX
Can I be a hater for a second? I don’t really think either of these teams are deserving of the ranks next to their names. Maybe Oregon, but just because they’ve beaten the piss out of Montana St. and a few of the worst B1G Ten teams doesn’t deem them worthy of the #6 spot in my eyes. On that note, don’t even get me started on Penn State. James “I will not win the big game so quit asking” Franklin is 4-20 all time against top 10 teams, and do you really think things are gonna be different all of a sudden? His QB Christian Hackenberg, sorry I mean Sean Clifford, oops wrong again I mean Drew Allar, has been disappointing thus far. Coming in as a top 5 favorite for the Heisman trophy in the preseason, Allar had high expectations set upon him by the national media. So far, against Nevada, FIU and Villanova (yes they have a football team apparently), Allar is averaging just over 200 yards per game and 1 TD per game. The story of this PSU team as always is the 2 headed monster they have at running back – Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton. The two RBs have 9 touchdowns combined, and have taken pressure off Allar to create offense. I foresee Dan Lanning and that Oregon defense stacking the box with defenders and tempting Allar to beat them with his arm. Normally this would be enough for me to pick Oregon and wrap this game up with a bow, but the question of Oregon QB Dante Moore vs this Penn State defense is intriguing. Moore will be making his 10th career start, and has improved consistently with each start. This will by far be his biggest test, but I think I’m choosing him over Allar to make the big time throws down the stretch.
Taking all of that into consideration, I’ll take the points with the Ducks. I think they can win outright, but it’s a white out.. and anything can happen.
#17 Alabama @ #5 Georgia (UGA -2.5 T: 52.5) 7:30pm on ABC
Close your eyes, and picture a world before Covid 19, before accessible AI, a world with Betty White still walking around, before King James secured his 4th championship and 4th Finals MVP. Now open them. WOW, that was a longggg time ago right? Well, you’d have to go even further back to find the last UGA home field loss. Kirby Smart has his Dawgs on a 33 game win streak, and they are staring down the barrel of the toughest test they’ve seen in years.
I’m not gonna go into all the typical talking points here, but I’ll brush over a few: Yes, both teams have some of the best talent across the board, and are blessed with NFL caliber players. Yes, both of these teams have looked vulnerable at moments. Yes, Florida State whooped Bama’s ass in Week 1. Yes, Kalen DeBoer is yet to get a signature road win in his time at Bama. Yes, Bama is 6-1 against Kirby Smart. Who caressss about all of that. When these two teams lace em up, only a few things matter: The line of scrimmage battle, which QB can make the right throws/runs at the right time, and which coach do you trust down the stretch. Looking at the line of scrimmage point, I don’t know which way I lean to be honest with you. Bama’s O-line has struggled against good dynamic athletes, and the D-line has been gashed by dual threat QBs and a fast motion offensive scheme. For the Dawgs, they haven’t been healthy on the O-line since Week 1, and the D-line has been less than impressive in pass rush win rate, ranking 115th in the country in sacks. For the QBs, it’ll be the dynamic running ability of Gunner Stockton vs. Ty Simpson’s ability to stay protected and pick apart this vulnerable UGA secondary. Simpson has looked great in his last two outings, posting 700 yards and 8 TDs on 90% completion.
One thing my good friend and colleague Josh Pate loves to say is “Paper don’t play”, which is a sentiment I am a firm believer in. I can look at all of the advanced metrics and stats and try to make an analytical read on this game, but at the end of the day, I just trust my eyes man. I watched this UGA team get SHELLED by Tennessee, yet stay composed and chip away at that lead, and find a way to win. They rallied behind Stockton and he made all the throws he needed to in one of the most hostile environments in the country. Bama is good, very good, but I think this game being in Athens makes the difference. Gimme the Dawgs to win and cover here, extending that win streak to 34.
A few other quick ones to watch, and spots I like.
– #1 Ohio State @ Washington +8.5: Get ready to learn Demond Williams buddy. Huskies keep this close, real close
– Auburn @ #9 Texas A&M over 52.5: I like this game, sneaky good. I think Auburn keeps this close and points are scored.
Due to my abhorrent performance last week in my Prizepicks TD scorers, I will refrain from selecting any this week. (This has nothing to do with me being lazy and sleepy at this very moment)
NFL Quick Picks
Falcons +1.5 vs. Commanders: Yeah, this one is gross I’ll admit it, but I think all the ATL and Penix slander will be fodder for an upset bounce back home win.
Bills -15.5 vs. Saints: Making this a weekly occurrence, no matter how large the spread, just bet against the Saints.
Bucs +3.5 vs. Eagles: FACT – The Eagles cannot win in Tampa Bay, they simply cannot handle the heat. I think the Eagles have skated by the last few weeks and I think this is where they drop one.
Chargers -6.5 @ Giants: Yeah I know they benched Russ and it’s now time to smoke some Darts, but I don’t care. Justin Herbert is playing like an MVP caliber QB and I think they roll into the big apple and spoil Jaxson’s 1st start.
Colts @ Rams over49.5: this is purely a vibes play. Danny Dimes in Los Angeles hanging out with his girl Kay Adam’s? Uhhh yeah, points. Johnathan Taylor might run for 200 yards.
Packers -6.5 @ Cowboys: Micah Parsons revenge game, he’s gonna have 3 sacks and probably a touchdown somehow. This feels like an over as well, but I ‘ll just take Green Bay to win and cover. The Boys are trash.
It’s Ryder Cup weekend, bitch. Put on those red white and blue underwear and start working on that backswing.
Love you guys,
TWD
