I heard a great quote the other day from the one and only Geno Smith that I think is appropriate to share at this tine, “The guy I’m supposed to be hasn’t shown up yet, plain and simple”. Plain and simple indeed, Geno, and the same thing can be said for your boy here, as I have another weekend below .500 with my CFB picks. Sure, sometimes there are horrific beats like the TCU game last weekend, but other times there are just horrible reads, like picking Arkansas to cover +4.5 and then losing by 43, at home. In defense of that pick, I was swept up in Hog mania and was yelling “Woooo Pig Soooiie” all weekend so of course I’m gonna be partial to that and ride the pine with my swine. Anyway, it’s time to lock in. The preseason is over for me and my magic 8 ball is put away, time to flip the switch.
But first, what happened last weekend?
The BIG NEWS
– Well well well, the streak is over ladies and gentlemen, after 33 straight wins, the Georgia Bulldogs have lost at home at the hands of the Crimson Tide 24-21. All week we saw the Kirby vs Alabama and Kirby vs Everyone else stats and how Bama has been haunting him, and all week I thought this game was different. In most cases, a 3 point loss comes down to a few moments, for example a wide open dropped touchdown pass, a fumble on your own 10 yard line, and things such as that. Granted this game did have both of those things, but I think UGA fans can confidently hang this one on Coach Smart and his staff. This is the 5th game in a row now the Dawgs have come out flat and slow on offense in the 1st half, and “spotting” the opponent points by poor defensive performances. Bama was 8/8 on 3rd down in the 1st half, scored 14 points by the time UGA had run its seventh offense play, and OC Mike Bobo and DC Glenn Schumann looked like fools. Credit to Bama and specifically HC Kalen DeBoer and OC Ryan Grubb for calling a flawless 1st half offensively. The Dawgs did their thing in the 2nd half, making adjustments and pretty much shutting down a Tide offense that had been unstoppable, holding them to 138 total yards. Offensively, Gunner found his groove and so did redshirt freshman Chauncey Bowens, as the young RB ran for 119 yards on only 13 carries. The game came down to a questionable 4th and 1 on Bamas 11 yard line, where Georgia decided to run tempo with a walk on RB on the field, and proceed to hand it to him. Needless to say that play wouldn’t have been judged so heavily had Cash Jones gotten the 1st down, but unfortunately he did not. I for one and blaming the play call, the personnel mistake, and the decision to run behind 2 true freshman on the right side of the O line.To give Bama some praise, they played a great game and out-coached Kirby and his entire staff. DeBoer came into one of the most hostile environments in the country and emptied the clip. QB Ty Simpson finished 24/38 for 276 and 3 TDs, with no turnovers. Bama is back in the conversation, like they never left. For the Dawgs, they’ll be okay once they figure out how to play the 1st half of games.
– James Franklin, you doing okay bud? Just in case you forgot, you’re now 4-22 against top 10 teams man. Similar to the UGA v. Bama curse, Penn State fans were on their hands and knees praying for a James Franklin top 10 win. Another year, another home white out game, and another Drew Allar horrible interception to lose the game. To be fair, that doesn’t tell the whole story, but we don’t have time for all that right now. 3-3 at half, this game was ASS. Then, all of sudden, OFFENSE! A 21 point 4th quarter led us to 17-17 score and overtime, where Dante Moore went to work. The young Oregon QB was throwing darts and using his legs when needed. He finished with 70% completion and 280 total yards & 3 TDs. Oregon looks like the best team in the country right now, and Penn State looks to be in prime form for their yearly 1st round CFP loss.
Other notable bullshit that happened:
– Florida State, you had everything in front of you. Clemson is buttcheeks, your date with Miami is right around the corner, and you go and lose to Virginia? Aren’t they a basketball school? UVA has only been bowl eligible (had 6 or more wins) 4 times in the last decade, and they pulled one of the largest upsets in their history Friday night. They jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but FSU marched back and tied it 21 before the break. An awesome game that went to 2 overtime’s ended in a Tommy Casamigos 4th down heave to the end zone that fell short, and a subsequent field storming that may be the best I’ve ever seen.
– Notre Dame 56 Arkansas 13: Hand up, I had this one SOOOO Wrong. As I mentioned earlier, I got wayyy too intoxicated by those jolly barbecue loving Hog fans, and within hours they had me believing. Well, they’re fucking delusional because this defense couldn’t stop a train if it had a bazooka. CJ Carr you have earned my respect young man. Jeremiah Love scored like 10 touchdowns, idk I lost count once he had 4 in the first half. Arkansas HC Sam Pittman has been fired, and the Return of Uncle Bobby Petrino is underway.
– USC falls to Illinois 34-32: Last second FGs have killed me this year man, eventually I’m gonna be on the winning end and it’s gonna be glorious. Until then, I just have to suck I guess. Kudos to Illinois for fighting in this game and to QB Luke Altmeyer for the 60 yard game winning drive to get them in position. My Heisman dark horse Jayden Maiava played decent (70% completion 365 yards & 2 TDS) but that defense is buns.
– LSU resorts back to 2024 LSU and forgets how to play offense, losing in Oxford 24-19. Lane Kiffin, pat yourself on the back, I’m sure you don’t do that enough as is. You coached a hell of a game and had some NUTS at the end of the game, going for it in plus territory to ice the game. I think Ole Miss has found their QB1 in Trinidad Chambliss, as I so boldly predicted, and they look dangerous. For LSU, cmon man. That Clemson win is aging like MILK and you go and drop a winnable game? Garrett Nussmeier looked timid and passive in the pocket, afraid to stretch the ball down the field once his WR1 went down. Will Brian Kelly bounce back? History suggests no, but crazier things have happened.
– Texas A&M 16 Auburn 10: P. U. This game stunk. Auburn issss bad? I’m not sure. This was a hostile environment and A&M jumped out to a lead early, and playing from behind is not something this Auburn offense is great at. Speaking of, Auburn was 0-13 on 3rd down, finished with 177 total yards, and gave up 4 sacks. Meanwhile, A&M ran for 207 yards and dominated time of possession. I think Auburn is a 8-4 team, and A&M is a CFP playoff team. They have a tough schedule ahead of them but even one loss may still put them in the SEC championship game.
Falcons 34 Commanders 27: The Marcus Mariota and Dan Quinn revenge game did not go the way ‘Manders fans anticipated. We finally got to see this Falcons offense in all its glory that it can be – Bijan 181 total yards and a TD, Drake London 8 rec 110 yards TD, Mike Penix completed 77% of passes for 313 yards & 2 TDs. ATL dominated this game, and if they can find consistency this team should be really frisky.
Steelers 24 Vikings 21: I assumed Carson Wentz’s suppressed ginger powers would be activated over in Dublin but it was actually Kenneth Gainwell who had a career day instead (155 yards & 2 TDS). Steelers are 3-1 and control the AFC North.
Bills 31 Saints 19: Yeah I took the Bills -15.5 here, and the Saints actually showed some fight. Not enough to win, but enough to make me look like an idiot. Spencer Rattler is now 0-10 as a starter in the NFL. Also, James Cook is a top 5 RB.
Texans 26 Titans 0: Yikes. The Titans are so so very bad. QB Cam Ward acknowledged their struggles in the post game presser by saying, “To keep it a buck, we ASS”. Truer words have never been spoken Cameron, hopefully you guys can find God, as I presume he is the only one who can help you now.
Lions 34 Browns 10: Just a whomping here. The Lions are Super Bowl contenders and they might have beaten Joe Flacco all the way into retirement. The 40 year old has been benched for rookie QB Dillon Gabriel moving forward.
Eagles 31 Bucs 25: My beef with Jalen Hurts continues, as the Eagles beat the Bucs despite him not so much as completing a single pass in the entire 2nd half. Not sure how that can happen and a team can win, but whatever.
Patriots 42 Panthers 13: We might need to start a conversation about Drake Maye, he has entered some historic territory as the he has completed 3 straight games with 75% completion and 2 TDs, joining a short list of HOFers.
Giants 21 Chargers 18: I did not account for the Rookie QB bump when making my Chargers -6.5 pick last week and now I feel like an idiot. Jaxson Dart did not disappoint, and the walking case of CTE himself, Cam Skattebo, was electric as well. The Exciting Whites have officially hit New York.
Jags 26 49ers 21: My Jacksonville Jags are 3-1, and Travis Etienne is good again. Brock Purdue was back, and they lost… is Macaroni Jones the best QB in San Francisco? People are beginning to murmur…
Rams 27 Colts 20: You know Matthew Stafford is feeling it when he starts tossing no look touchdown passes. The old man threw for 375 and 3 TDs, while the best WR in the NFL, Puka Nakua, added 170 rec yards. Indiana Jones collects his first loss as a Colt, but they still lead the AFC South.
Bears 25 Raiders 24: Congrats to my personal friend Big Cat on this Bears win. Caleb Williams game winning drive feels like a core moment in his development, and this is a game the Bears always lose.
Cheifs 37 Ravens 20: Are the Ravens dead? I don’t understand how that Top 3 defense a year ago is all of a sudden one of the worst in the NFL. It’s not like they lost a lot of talent to trades or free agency, so I’m puzzled. Lamar is now out for a few weeks, meaning Cooper Rush is in. The reincarnation of the Red Rifle is BACK.
Packers 40 Cowboys 40: Our first tie in 3 years, and it was glorious. These QBs combined for 656 yards and 6 TDS, they were SLINGING it. This feels like a win for the Cowboys, considering it was the Micah Parsons revenge game and they won it.
Time to boogie people. Let’s get to it.
#16 Vanderbilt @ #10 Alabama (BAMA -10.5 T: 55.5) 3:30pm on ABC
Alright. I’ve watched 13 hours of film in order to prepare myself for this week’s college picks, so no shot I suck again this week.
So, getting into this one, I have a few numbers for you guys – Vandy ranks #2 (yes #2) in the SEC in PPG (50), ranks #2 in yards per play (7.8), and #3 in yards per carry (6.8). This is a different Vandy team from previous years, and went to Columbia and put belt to ass to USC 31-7 a few weeks back. QB Diego Pavia is frisky, knows how to beat Bama, and is exuding the same dangerous confidence we saw a year ago. Unfortunately for Vandy, just as my dear friend and coworker Josh Pate says, “the paper don’t play”. Vandy will have to travel to Tuscaloosa and face a Bama team fresh off the win in Athens, seeking blood and revenge for the loss last season in Nashville. I have no clue who to pick here, because this is a let down spot for Bama… but it changes because this team can’t afford to miss a step. I like the Tide to keep rolling and cover this -10.5, because they are Alabama, and they are playing Vandy. Sometimes it’s that simple.
#3 Miami @ #18 Florida State (MIAMI -4.5 T: 54.5) 7:30pm on ABC
Alright, time to nut the fuck up.
The Bad News: the loser of this game will most definitely miss out on the ACC Championship game once Georgia Tech goes undefeated in conference play (could also be Duke, don’t rule out the Blue Devils). The Good News: one of these teams WILL win this game, I can guarantee you that. Will it be the Mario Cristobal trench warfare style of play, or the Mike Norvell/Gus Malzahn offensive trickery? Well I think we get a hell of a lot of both here. Mario has built this team on the backbone of 5 star defensive and offensive lineman, and coached them into NFL draft picks. He added QB Carson Beck from the portal, and although he can’t seem to keep a girlfriend or track of his many vehicles, he’s been playing the best ball of his career this year. They play fast and physical. A name to watch here is Rueben Bain on the DL, he’s a game wrecker.
On the Noles side of things, they’re reeling a bit after that 2 OT loss to UVA. A classic look ahead game that bit them right on the ass, but they’ve finally arrived at the game they were looking ahead to, so will they be prepared? Survey says: Yes. I cannot believe I’m about to write this but I think Gus Malzahn will have a great game script schemed up. Ew, my entire body just had a physical reaction to complimenting that man. Anyway, I think it’s true. Thomas Castellanos and Gus seem to be a happy couple, and I’m more worried about the defense at this point. Canes freshman WR Malachi Toney leads the team in receptions and yards, and is a nightmare to guard. Miami has been great a utilizing his speed to beat man coverage, and his understanding of zone coverages allows him to sit in the soft spot and be a safety valve for Beck. FSU is gonna have to put one of their best athletes on Toney and shadow him. If you can take away Becks first read and make him uncomfortable, he’ll make mistakes. It should be an awesome game that I see being decided by a FG, so I’m on the Seminoles to keep this one realllll tight Jerry, real tight.
Other sneaky good games YOU should watch:
– Mississippi State @ #9 Texas A&M: yes, the Aggies are undefeated, and that feels kinda weird, right? I mean maybe I’m just used to those Jimbo years where they lose a let down game at home. Either way, this spread is -16.5 points, and that is far too many for this Frisky State team. The only thing to watch is the penalties, the Bulldogs LOVE getting penalties, and in a game like this, that will cost them. I expect them to keep it within 2 scores, maybe a backdoor cover? Or maybe an outright win? Idk, gimme the Dogs to cover.
– #9 Texas @ Florida: No, I am NOT gonna pick Florida, in fact I’m not gonna even make a pick in this game (that’s a lie) but if I HAD to (see I told you) I would probably take an under here. DJ Lagway is addicted to throwing the ball to the other team, the best part of the Texas team is that crazy athletic and scary defense. Currently at 43.5, which is low, I’m still taking it. Kinda hate this pick but whatever. I hope both teams find a way to lose.
– Duke @ Cal: Ahhh yes, a conference game in the ACC between Duke and California, how normal. If you aren’t familiar with Cal QB Jaren-Keawe Sagapolutele, you GON LEARN son. The 18 year old lefty is a gunslinger who’s led Cal to a 4-1 record thus far and is extremely fun to watch. He simply does not have a conservative bone in his body, he forces throws into tight windows in a true gunslinger style that would bring a tear to Brett Favre’s eyes. Duke scores points, simple. Gimme the over 54.5 here.
PrizePicks Props & TD Scorers of the week are brought to you by Dude Wipes.
If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about getting in the trenches & getting their butts in the (end) zone, it’s Dude Wipes.
James Cook – Did you know James Cook has scored in 8 straight games? Yeahhhhh let’s make it 9.
Quinshon Junkins – o1.5 receptions. Lil different here but I love this line. Dillon Gabriel is IN, and I expect him to utilize his safety outlet in Junkins early and often. Ladder opportunities here too for you + odds folks.
Alvin Kamara – o56.5 rush yards. Love this line for AK. Playing against the Giants who rank 29th in rush yards allowed per game.
David Montgomery – just a week after going for 151 and 2 TDs, Monty had 9 carries for 12 yards. They play Bengals, who are the closest thing to a college team in the NFL. The bounce back game, Monty will score and hit his rush yards line of 51.5.
Daniel Jones – this is a personal play here. Going back to the well with our boy Indiana Jones. He has 3 rushing TDs in 4 games, and I expect him to continue to use his legs in the redzone this weekend.
NFL Quick Picks
To be honest with you, I kinda hate the board this week so only taking a few spots.
Colts -6.5 @ Raiders: I love this Colts team and I’m not a believer in the Geno Smith experiment in Vegas. He cannot get be bothered to throw the ball to his best player (Brock Bowers duh) and Danny Dimes and JT are awesome.
Lions -10.5 @ Bengals. This is extremely chalk of me, but I mean it’s Jake Browning man. Maybe I’m wrong and I’ll eat shit if I am but that dude blows ASS. Dan Campbell will beat that dead horse until the final whistle blows, I expect a BIG game from the Lions.
Ravens +3 vs. Texans: Yes I know Lamar is out, yes I know the Texans won by 26 last week, so what? Cooper Rush is IN and I’m a believer. Feed King Henry, feed Zay Flowers, get a must needed win in Houston.
It’s October, which means it’s officially spooky season. So grab your significant other and head to a pumpkin patch, carve that puppy up, and remember to set out some Almond Joy’s and sour milk for Newt Gingrich or else he’ll steal all your utensils.
This week’s meme is brought to you by Comet, the butta dawg.
Love you guys,
TWD
