Not gonna lie, I am sick, and not in the “Tony Hawk just landed the first ever 900” kinda way. At this point in the day I’ve taken enough Benadryl to knock out an elephant, so unfortunately for you all this will be a rather short newsletter. Don’t worry, I wrote a bit earlier in the week (little peek behind the curtain) before I started feeling like a bag of ass, so you’ll notice my typical long-windedness mixed in. As always, love you guys.
The BIG NEWS
– Bama 27 Mizzou 24: It only feels right to start out in Columbia where my sweet prince Ahmad Hardy was shoved in a locker for 4 quarters. Yes, it’s true, the FBS leader in rushing yards coming into the game was held to a measly 52 yards on 12 carries. Alabama is clearly subscribed to the Deuce, because just as my expert analysis suggested they do, they committed to stopping the run. That front 7 put together the best effort yet, and bottled up Hardy all game. This put Mizzou in a lot of 3rd and pass situations, where Pribula has struggled thus far, and they finished 1-10 on 3rd down. Looking at the box score, you see a few things that catch your eye – Mizzou outgained Bama 330 to 325 and had more total sacks 4 to 2, but Bama won the turnover battle 2 to 1 and dominated time of possession, 39 minutes to 21 minutes. That right there was the difference, combined with the 6/15 conversion rate on 3rd down, extending drives. Keeping Hardy and that Mizzou offense that came in ranked in the top 10 in nearly every offensive category off the field won them the game. Bama continues to roll.
– Ohio State 34 Illinois 16: I did not have the good fortune of watching this game, but one quick look at the box score shows me Ohio State held a 20-0 lead, until Illinois hit a FG before the 1st half ended. Nothing really jumps off the paper here, as QB Julian Sayin had another solid day (166 yards 2 TDs), Jeremiah Smith 5 catches 42 yards and a TD, and Arvell Reese had 1.5 sacks. Similar to the Bama v. Mizzou game, the real proof is in the pudding, or Team Stats, if you will. OSU dominated 3rd down on both sides – Offense was 8/15 while defense held Illinois to 4/14. Luke Altmeyer was sacked 4 times, turned the ball over twice, and Illinois lost the time of possession battle 26-34. The Buckeyes continue to stay atop the sport until someone can knock them off.
– Indiana 30 Oregon 20: Well, I think’s about time we start to respect this Hoosier team. Or I suppose we can talk shit on this hyped Oregon team, either way I’m cool. Let’s start with the good though, Indiana. I am officially ready to say that Curt Cignetti might be a really good coach. Hot take, I know, but given his track record of turning programs around and his ability to build a winning roster in a matter of 24 months, I’d say it’s a good take. As per usual, let’s take a peek at the box score and look at some numbers: the paper doesn’t pop THAT much for anyone except future first round WR1 Elijah Sarratt. The 6’2 senior from Baltimore, MD was with Cignetti at JMU and followed him to the Hoosier filled promise land. He posted 8 receptions for 121 yards and a TD. Outside of Sarratt, the Hoosier offense played as a team, with QB Fernando Mendoza playing himself into Heisman contention (even though he threw a pick 6), and that aggressive defense doing just enough to keep Dante Moore uncomfortable for 4 quarters. Oregon will be okay, and I think they still make the playoff as an at large big, but the real story is this Indiana team. If they can keep their wits about them and stay on course, they’ll meet Ohio State in the B1G Ten championship game.
Other cool things that happened last weekend:
– Penn State drops another game, becoming the first team in history to lose two straight after being 20+ point favorites, and James Franklin is $50M richer. The Nittany Lions lose to 3-2 Northwestern AT HOME, and James Franklin is fired 48 hours later. Wild move, I like Franklin and think this was a bit premature, but it’s the world we live in.
– Georgia escapes Auburn after continuing to play the very dangerous game of Jekyll and Hyde. UGA had 7:30 minutes to Auburns 22:30 in 1st half time of possession, in a half defined by horrible officiating and a controversial goaline fumble. The Dawgs remembered how to play football in the second half, and outscored the Tigers 17-0, holding them to just 17 yards of offense until the final driver (they finished with 54). If the Dawgs can string together two halves in the same game like this, they’re dangerous.
– Florida State loses another ACC game (shoutout Pitt). This team continues to mystify the masses, as they can beat Bama, the pinnacle of the sport, but then lose 8 straight conference games. Not sure what to do with them, I suppose they’ll just be that gnat flying around looking to ruin some people’s day.
– Notre Dame handles NC State, moves to 4-2 behind a big CJ Carr game. The young freshman QB is gaining confidence heading into a big matchup against the Trojans.
– John Mateer comes back a week earlier than he should have, throws 3 interceptions, and loses the Red River Shootout. I am going to go ahead and put Texas atop the list of 2 loss teams that I DONT want to play. One of the most talented rosters in the sport that is starting to figure it out. Also Arch played pretty well, good for the kid.
– Colorado upsets Iowa State, hands them their 2nd loss of the season. Shoutout WR Joseph Williams for the big game – 8 receptions, 128 yards and a TD.
– Tennessee avoids the Bobby Patrino interim coach upset as the Vols win 34-31 and hold off a late Hogs comeback.
– Texas A&M handles Florida at home, DJ Lagway throws ZERO interceptions (nice) but does fumble a few times. This A&M team has earned my respect, they are very fun.
– USC whoops up on Michigan 31-13, as my Jayden Maiava Heisman hopes are still alive and well. What was most surprising about this game was the fact that despite being on their 3rd and 4th string running backs, USC was able to run ALL OVER this “tough” Michigan defense. This was a big win for Lincoln Riley, proving the Trojans can play with the big boys in the B1G Ten.
– BYU survives another week as they beat Arizona in overtime, remaining undefeated. Haven’t watched a lot of Cougar ball this year, but I get horrible vibes from them. Their starting QB wears #47, nuff said.
Your week 6 recap is brought to you in the form of AFC and NFC divisional standings. Not writing up all the games this week, but I’ll say a few nice things: Bijan Robinson is the best RB in the NFL not named Rico Dowdle, Drake Maye might be THAT dude, the Eagles are ass but they’re gonna be fine, and the Chiefs are gonna win the Super Bowl.
Keeping these short, as I mentioned in the intro, so I can go to bed at a reasonable time tonight. I’ll have plenty of visuals for you guys as usual though so don’t fret.
NOON
– #12 Georgia Tech @ Duke (GT -1.5 T: 60.5) on ESPN: If I told you preseason that both of these teams would be undefeated in conference play by Week 8 you would’ve tied my ankles to cinderblocks and thrown me in the river, but here we are. Keeping it simple, I like Tech to win and Haynes King to score a rushing TD, book it.
– #10 LSU # #17 Vanderbilt (VAN -2.5 T: 48.5) on ABC: Fun fact, this is the fist time Vanderbilt has been favored in an SEC matchup since 1978, yes, i’ts been nearly 50 years. Have we allowed ourselves to fall a little TOO in love with this Dores team? Maybe.. remember when LSU beat Clemson and everyone thought they were a lock for SEC champ? Good times. I’m not drinking the Cool-Aid, and you’re gonna give me LSU as a dog… against Vandy?? Well call me a fool because I am having that. Go Tigers.
AFTERNOON
– #5 Ole Miss @ #9 Georgia (UGA -7.5 T: 54.5) on ABC: Ia ready mentioned the Jekyll and Hyde nature of this UGA team, and we, as a collective unit, should know about Ole Miss dual threat QB Trinidad Chambliss by now. Mix that together and what do you get? You get Ole Miss covering the first half line (whatever it is) and then UGA waking up in the second half and covering the 2nd half line, and winning the game. If you don’t have access to those, I like Ole Miss to keep this within 1 score and cover the 7.5 points.
– #4 Texas A&M @ Arkansas (TAMU – 7.5 T: 60.5) on ESPN: Two things, I love the over here and I love A&M in the points, so I’ll be selecting both. Bobby Petrino has given this Hogs team some juice, but they still have no defense, so take Mario Craver to have 100 yards, Reuben Owen’s to score, and the score to be exactly 45-27.
– #7 Texas Tech @ Arizona State (TTU – 7.5 T: 51.5) on FOX: Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt is listed right now as “Probable” and knowing that ASU can’t afford to lose another game, he likely WILL play. I do NOT care. The Red Raiders may have paid nearly $30M to build this roster, but damnit is it good. They roll and win by 10 plus.
NIGHT
– #20 USC @ #13 Notre Dame (ND -9.5 T: 60.5) on NBC: This right here ladies in gentlemen is the battle for one of the future at-large playoff spots. The loser is unfortunately eliminated from playoff contention. You all know I love USC QB Jayden Maiava, and this is his Heisman moment, he’s just gotta go and take it. This ND defense is playing better every week, but I don’t care. The Trojans are rolling, these teams hate each other, idk who wins but the Trojans cover the 9.5 points. A prop I love is Makai Lemon receptions and receiving yards, he might be the best WR in the sport not named Jeremiah Smith right now. Also Jeremiah Love receptions, sneaky.
– #11 Tennessee @ #6 Alabama (BAMA – 8.5 T: 59.5) on ABC: Tennessee is capable of beating Alabama, always have been, but this is in Tuscaloosa, and Ty Simpson looks reallyyyyyy good. I don’t like this line, so I guess I’ll cheer for points here, give me the over 59.5. Germie Bernard career game incoming by the way, take his receiving yards. Also – Ty Simpson rushing yards, I expect the QB to continue to find success using his legs.
– #16 Mizzou @ Auburn (MIZZ – 1.5 T: 43.5) on SEC Network: Weird weird weird. Vegas seems to think low scoring, very tight game. I honestly have no idea and I’m not going to speculate. Weird things happen in Jordan-Hare at night, I’ll leave it at that.
– #23 Utah @ #15 BYU (UTES -3.5 T: 49.5) on FOX: The Holy War, what a beautiful game. 5-1 Utah against 6-0 BYU. If you read my earlier comments on this BYU team, you’d already know I’m not picking them. That QB wearing #47 is an affront to everything I believe in as a sports fan, and I will not stand for it. I also coincidentally love the Utes, so this is easy. Devon Dampier and company go into Provo and win the Holy War by a score.
Ready for a speedrun? Here we go
TD Scorers, no explanation needed
– Bijan Robinson
– Quinshon Judkins
– Josh Jacobs
– George Pickens
– Amon-Ra St. Brown
– Tez Johnson
NFL Quick Picks
– Bucs @ Lions over 52.5
– Commanders @ Cowboys over 54
– Eagles -2.5 @ Vikings
– Saints +4.5 @ Bears
– Colts @ Chargers over 48.5
That’s all I’ve got. Sure, the MLB Playoffs are going on right now, but I don’t really care. I’d love to see Seattle get to the World Series, but the Dodgers are going to sweep the Brewers and win it all in likely 5 games so what’s it even matter.
Love you guys,
TWD
