Remember when I went 7-2 on my CFB picks last weekend? I mean, I haven’t really thought about it AT ALL, I only bring it up because of you guys. All week, I’ve been bombarded by you, my loyal Deucers, clamoring for insight and early picks on this weekends glorious slate (nobody contacted me, I’m delusional). While I appreciate all of the praise, love and anticipation, I shan’t compromise the integrity of this newsletter for a few unsolicited bribes and a little sweet talk (I absolutely will, I am a weak man).
Anyway, we have another fantastic weekend of football ahead of us, with some great games. Let’s check it out
I did not watch this game. Bo Nix vs. Spencer Rattler? Are we sure this isn’t a noon SEC+ game broadcasted by Beth Mowins? No thanks. Here’s a picture.
Friday Night – got a few good ones here
FLLLLLorida State @ Duke (DUKE -3 T: 42.5) 7:00pm on ESPN2
Will the Seminoles show up? It’s unlikely. Now 1-5, they desperately need a win in order to keep those bowling aspirations alive. Duke is 5-1 but coming off a tough loss to Georgia Tech just two weeks ago, and had a bye week to prep for the Noles. Luckily DJ Oogiebadoogie is still out, so that gives FSU a chance to keep this one close.
Oklahoma State @ #13 BYU (BYU -9 T: 52.5) 10:15pm on ESPN
Nothin more fun than Mike Gundy and crew traveling as underdogs to the home of all Mormons late on a Friday night. Two sides of the same conference coin here: BYU is undefeated and atop the Big 12 , soaring high. On the other side, OK State is reeling from 3 straight losses, 2 to ranked opponents, so the Cowboys could use a big win here. I think this should be close, but I like BYU to stay undefeated.
Saturday – Noon
Nebraska @ #16 Indiana (IU -6.5 T: 49.5) Noon on FOX
Horton hears a Hoosier these days, because they’re 6-0 for the first time since Lyndon B Johnson was in office (Call her Lyndon the way she B on my Johnson). Former James Madison head coach Curt Cignetti has his new team rocking and rollin but they face their biggest test of the season on Saturday. Now, I know people might be saying “Are they actually good? Who have they played??” and that’s fair. They are yet to beat a team above .500, granted 3 of them are exactly .500 (3-3), but still. While you’re thinking about that, think about this – they’ve scored 40 points in 5 straight weeks, won all 6 by 14 or more, and are the only FBS team that’s yet to trail in a game this year. The #2 scoring offense in the FBS (47.5 ppg) is led by QB Kurtis Rourke, who’s been putting up great numbers every week. Averaging 300 total yards a game and tallying 16 touchdowns, he’s been the driving force behind this offense.
As for the Cornhusker’s, they are indeed above .500, and are on a 2 game win streak after losing that OT thriller to Illinois just a few weeks ago. Freshman QB Dylan Raiola is finding his groove, but it won’t matter if they can’t slow down Rourke and that high flying offense. I like the Hoosiers to score, and score a lot. Give me the over.
#6 Miami @ Louisville (THE U -5 T: 59.5) Noon on ABC
So, is this the week someone finally clips Miami? While we may be in the middle of Hurricane season (thoughts and prayers), I don’t have a lot of faith that it’ll continue for much longer. Miami has won the last two games by a combined 5 points (yikes) but a win is a win. Heisman candidate Cam Ward has been slinging the pill around like his name is William Cosby, and single handedly lifting his team to these wins. Can he keep it up against a poor Louisville defense? It’s likely, but I think the Cards can give them a decent fight.
True freshman RB Isaac Brown has burst onto the scene for Louisville, coming off 3 straight 100 yard games and giving them a much needed spark offensively. Weird stat for you – Louisville is the best 3rd Quarter team in the FBS this year. What the hell does that even mean? It means the half time adjustments are kicking ass, as they’ve outscored opponents 59-12 and haven’t even allowed a TD. So, what does my barometer say? Well, the forecasts are saying it’s gonna be a Category 2, slight winds and rain with the Hurricane(s) ability to cover the spread.
Saturday – Afternoon
#7 Alabama @ #11 Tennessee (ALA -3.5 T: 56.5) 3:30pm on ABC
5-1, with a bad loss to an SEC team that has been regarded as a bit of a joke in years past. Which team am I talking about? well it could be both I suppose. I’ll dub this the “Holy Shit I have to win this or else Dan Mullen is gonna say that we’re dead” game. Bama, still recovering after losing to a school that plays football games in a construction zone, is skating on thin ice. They narrowly defeated South Carolina last weekend and honestly if it weren’t for inexperienced QB play, they would’ve lost. They need to find some of that magic pixie dust they must’ve been snorting before the Georgia game and line that shit up again. Going into Neyland Stadium is no simple task, and last time the Tide rolled into that stadium, they got caught with their pants down.
Let’s check on Bobby Hill and his Vols – 2 weeks ago, their “excellent” offense was held to just 14 points in a loss to the Hogs of Arkansas, and last week they beat Florida at the buzzer in OT (UF didn’t have their starting QB). Bobby Hill better bring his boys to play this week, and they should be salivating after watching film on that Bama secondary that has the backend coverage skills of a Snuggie. UT QB Nico Iamamgoingtothrowfor300yards has a great opportunity to gain some confidence here and find a rhythm. If the Vols can lean on star RB Dylan Sampson and get the run game established, it’ll free up Nico to stretch the ball to his playmakers outside.
This should be a really fun game, and as the sun sets the people of Knoxville will come to life and make that environment even more hostile. I think Tennessee can move the ball and attempt to play keep-away long enough to keep this game close. Tennessee covers and they may even win outright.
#12 Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech (ND -9.5 T: 50.5) 3:30pm on ESPN
Keeping this short and sweet. The Yellow Jackets will cover and possibly win this game outright. Now, it’s all dependent on the health of GT QB Haynes King. He is listed as a gametime decision at the moment, and if he is a no go then I’d advise staying away from this game. With that being said, I have about as much faith in Riley Leonard as I do in my ability to dunk on a 10 foot goal (I cannot dunk on a 10 foot goal).
I know Brian Kelly is gone, but I still smell his stink all over the Irish. They just lost projected 1st round pick CB Benjamin Morrison to a season ending hip injury, and he’s the anchor of that defense. The offense has actually been clicking lately, and that big win over Louisville two weeks ago looks better every week. I’d monitor King’s status and if he’s out, I think the Irish will roll.
Some quick hitters —
#24 Michigan @ #22 Illinois (MICH -3.5 T: 44.5) 3:30pm on CBS
Here is your primetime 3:30 CBS game of the week. Big Bret Bielema and his Illini are coming off an emotional overtime win against Purdue, and host a Michigan team in need of a bounce back win after getting exposed in Washington last weekend. The Wolverines are the favorites here but I like Illinois to cover. I don’t think Michigan should be ranked, and I damn sure don’t think they should be favored.
Colorado @ Arizona (ZONA -2.5 T: 57.5) 4:00pm on FOX
Deion and crew are 4-2, and most recently lost to #18 Kansas State by 3. Arizona can’t seem to figure it out, they have the talent but can’t put a complete game together. This should be a pretty fun QB battle, and I think they’ll light it up. I like cheering for points so I’m leaning the over but I also think Colorado comes to play and maybe wins this game.
Saturday – Night
#8 LSU @ Arkansas (LSU -2.5 T: 56.5) 7:00pm on ESPN
Trap game trap game trap game. Just as all things seem to be turning up for the LSU Tigers, riding high after a huge Top 10 win against Ole Miss last weekend, they have to face Arkansas. “But they just beat Lane Kiffin and Jaxson Dart!! And that guy spells his name with an ‘x’!!” Yes, both of those things are true. Unfortunately, Brian Kelly is slowly turning into pumpkin (tis the season) and I think this is a prime let down spot.
Sam Pittman has his Hogs playing hard physical football, and I think they can play spoiler all year long. After clipping Tennessee in a similar spot just a few weeks ago, I think QB Taylen Green and Co can repeat that effort. The key is gonna be getting pressure on Garrett Nussmeier and containing the LSU pass attack. Arkansas has a sneaky good secondary, and if they can assert themselves physically, I love their chances. Give me the Hogs to win outright.
#5 Georgia @ #1 Texas (UT -5 T: 56.5) 7:30pm on ABC
Well well well, here we are again. Another beautiful top 5 matchup. My respect for this game and respect for maintaining the integrity of what it means being a #BigJ journalist calls for me to break this down in an unbiased, no non-sense type of way.
Keys for Texas – attack that dysfunctional UGA secondary. It’s no secret they have been below the ‘UGA standard’ that’s been set the last few years under Kirby. There is already plenty of film out there this season on ways to schematically take advantage of this through the pass game, and I trust Sark to have something ready. Texas might be weak at the RB position, but have had a few freshman step up, along with having one of the best WR rooms in CFB this year. Defensively, I think Texas should mirror Kentucky’s plan, which held UGA to it’s lowest yards per play and total yards under the Kirby Smart. They have a strong defensive line and a great true freshman edge rusher, Collin Simmons, who has been a breakout for them this year. A really great unit defensively is complimented well by the experience of Ewers who is protected by a wall of multiple 1st round draft picks.
Not gonna say ‘keys’ because I think it would be best to keep all vehicle related idioms far away from UGA. Anyway, let’s check out the Battery and Assault charges of the game for the Dawgs – win the turnover battle. I’d say a lot of people are well aware of the defensive struggles the Dawgs have had all season, and one of the lesser known struggles has been their inability to force turnovers. They currently rank 81st in the FBS in that category, and will need to pressure Quinn Ewers into making a mistake or force a mistake from one of those freshmen RB’s. On the other side, Beck has to protect the ball. He’s thrown the ball 90 times the last two games, and with that kinda volume, he’s more susceptible to forcing a throw into tight coverage. In a game like this, the Dawgs can’t afford any errors. Offensively, they need two things. 1) Establish some form of a run game. Trevor Etienne has been unimpressive and unhealthy so far this season, and the rest of the backs are injured, aside from freshman stud Nate Frazier (who needs more carries) 2) WRs need to step up. With Colbie Young being dismissed from the team, UGA and Carson Beck are missing a clear #1 guy. Arian Smith is a guy that can vertically stretch the field, but he gets the yips mid game and can’t make the catches that matter. A guy to watch is Dillon Bell, I believe he should be used more like a Deebo Samuel type, line his ass up in the backfield, throw him tunnel screens, or get him matched up with linebackers. OC Mike Bobo has to find a way to get him the ball, as he is UGA’s biggest HR threat and playmaker.
Verdict – Man, idk what the hell to think. If UGA can put together 60 minutes of consistent football, I think they can be the best team in football. Problem is, they have not proved they are capable of that yet this season. Meanwhile, Texas is the best team in the country, but I don’t know if I can say they’ve truly been tested, nor have they faced anyone of the caliber of the team they’ll see Saturday night. A big test for both teams, but keeping in mind that this is the first time UGA has been an underdog in 50 (FIFTY) games, which is fuckin nuts, I’m sticking with Kirby and the Dawgs here to cover and keep this game tight to the end.
PrizePicks TD Scorers are brought to you by Dude Wipes.
If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about getting in the trenches & getting their butts in the (end) zone, it’s Dude Wipes.
Bijan Robinson – he has FINALLY been unleashed, and I don’t expect it to stop against a soft Seahawks defense
Antonio Gibson – Rhamondre is likely out, and they play the Jags so they get the Jags bump. He scores
Tony Pollard – Bills run defense sucks, don’t overthink it
Amon Ra St. Brown – he never has two bad weeks in a row, he will be a target monster
David Montgomery – this guy has scored in 6 straight games, let’s make it 7
Kareem Hunt – only thing he likes more than pushing women around is pushing NFC teams around. TD
Quick Picks – Seahawks +3, Colts -3, Lions v. Vikings o50.5, Bengals -5, Packers v. Texans o47, Eagles -3
American League – Championship Series
New Jork Jankees v. Cleveland Guardians (2-1)
Ohhhhhh babyyyyy. After winning both games in New Jork, the Jankees looked like they might sweep their way to the World Series, but thank God for David Fry! The (kinda) young man from Texas was the hero of Game 3 as he walked off the game in the 10th inning, with an awesome 2 run blast to give them the 7-5 win. 2 swings completely changed the trajectory of this ALCS, as Jhonkensy (yes, that’s his real name) Noel pinch hit and connected on a curve ball to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th, and send it to extras. Stanton had just hit the go ahead HR an inning earlier, and he’s been really good this series. The scary thing for the Guards is the fact that Aaron Judge sucks, and has been sucking. Usually you’d think that’s good, right? Idk, I feel like the law of averages tends to disagree, I mean he can’t suck this much the entire series, can he? Idk, I hope so.
National League – Championship Series
Los Angeles Dodgers v. New Jork Mets (3-1)
At the time I’m writing this, it is 9-2 LA in the 8th inning, so I am operating under the assumption that they don’t blow this lead. Shohei continues to be an absolute freak (when runners are on base 17-21) and sometimes REALLY sucks (when nobody is on base 0-23). I do not know how that is humanly possible, but I guess you can just chalk this up to Ohtani being an unbelievably great teammate, and super selfish and refusing to get on base for others. Anyway, the Metropolitans are in BIG trouble. One more game in NY and even if they find a way to win, it’s likely certain death once they head back to LA.
Member that old man that plays QB out west? Like really old, no it’s not Bo Nix, think OLDER. I like where your head is at, but no, it’s not JT Daniels either. The old man I am referring to is the same age as the following NFL QB’s:
Trevor Lawrence
Jayden Daniels
Bo Nix
CJ Stroud
Justin Fields
Brock Purdy
Will Levis
Zach WilsonI’m of course referring to Cameron Rising. The 25 year old former Texas now Utah QB has had an extended college career. Due to numerous season ending injuries, the old man is currently in his 7th (yes, seventh) year of College Football. Why is this relevant? Who cares? My Uncle Buster spent 9 years at Ole Miss and now he runs the 3rd largest Sperm Bank in Dale County! It’s relevant because that old man just sadly suffered another season ending injury…which means he’s eligible to receive a medical redshirt…giving him the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever. Don’t listen to the noise Cam, take the year, come back to Utah, stay in college forever!!!
Love you guys,
TWD
